In today’s briefing:
- Charting Beyond the Near-Term Fed Pause
- Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023
- Oil Prices Surge As The Situation In The Red Sea Intensifies
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia’s Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed
- Part Five: The German Vulnerability
Charting Beyond the Near-Term Fed Pause
- The initial phase of Fed easing, from pre-Volcker to post-Greenspan, can differ, particularly on the magnitude
- Historical Fed pivots, from hiking to easing, tend to be sensitive to the state of the economy
- The extent of initial Fed easing around historical downturns was at least double the size when compared to episodes with no imminent recessions
Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023
- Happy new year guys – another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it.
- First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the costly mistakes we made during the past year.
- Soft commodities dominated the commodity front during 2023.
Oil Prices Surge As The Situation In The Red Sea Intensifies
- Oil prices surge as tensions in the Red Sea escalate with new and strong provocations from Iran.
- Oil oversupply concerns and weak demand persist while ongoing geopolitical tensions support oil prices.
- WTI current implied volatilities still well below elevated levels seen in October 2023.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Prodia’s Recovery, Grab in 2024, and Kalbe Farma Primed
- The Past week saw insights of Prodia (PRDA IJ), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), and Pyridam Farma (PYFA IJ).
- The was also an insight on Thonburi Healthcare Group (THG TB) and a sector piece looking at the beleaguered Vietnamese Real Estate sector.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Part Five: The German Vulnerability
- German nominal yields have fallen less than those in the UK and the US.
- There are two possible outcomes: either Germany’s yields will catch up with those of its peers, or in the event of a correction or reversal, Germany may experience the most significant upside in yields and equity underperformance.
- The German yield curve has remained flat compared to the US and has outperformed the UK’s yield curve.
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