In today’s briefing:
- Charting Beyond the Euro Area Headlines
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Sea Ltd’s Loss, Grab’s Balance, and Bangkok Dusit Medical.
- Energy Cable #47: Price Always Leads Narrative
- Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD
Charting Beyond the Euro Area Headlines
- Available data through October implies that prevailing GDP growth is possibly tracking weaker than the prior quarter
- A proxy of household saving propensity seems to be hovering around elevated levels partly because of greater uncertainty
- Notwithstanding the recent disinflationary prints, the most persistent category of HICP inflation appears to be sticky at roughly twice the pre-pandemic average level
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Sea Ltd’s Loss, Grab’s Balance, and Bangkok Dusit Medical.
- The past week saw insights on Sea (SE US), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB), SCG Decor PCL (SCGD TB), and Amara Holdings (AMA SP).
- There was also a macro insight on Singapore’s economic outlook plus insights on Singapore Airlines, Sheng Siong (SSG SP), Mitra Keluarga (MIKA IJ), and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Energy Cable #47: Price Always Leads Narrative
- Happy Monday to everybody from a cold and rainy Copenhagen.
- We are now long crude oil again as we find the narrative too bearish given the fundamentals.
- Before we start to talk about our crude oil case, we would like to highlight the volatility in post covid energy markets and how these have benefitted sellers in the futures markets more than buyers keeping storage costs constant.
Positioning Watch – Positioning for Lower Yields and Weaker USD
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch where we run through interesting observations found in positioning data for the latest week (now back on schedule).
- Recent trading days have been all about lower bond yields, a weaker USD and rising equity prices, as risk asset prices are at the moment all about discount rates and swap-pricing of the future of central bank policy.
- As we have addressed, conditions are slowly but surely starting to decrease the risk/reward of going long-risk assets at current junctures.
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