In today’s briefing:
- Bumper Brazil Harvest To Depress Near-Term Sugar Price Despite Indian Export & Blending Restrictions
- Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks
- Inflation Watch: Another Deflation Shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway Are Under the Loop!
- Mint Macro Roundup: Dissecting The Recent Jobs Data
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!
- CX Daily: China’s Internet Content Kings Struggle to Keep Users Paying
Bumper Brazil Harvest To Depress Near-Term Sugar Price Despite Indian Export & Blending Restrictions
- India is top global sugar producer & exporter. India ordered mills to halt ethanol blending on domestic shortage concerns in addition to export restrictions imposed earlier this year.
- Sugar prices soared to a 12 year high in late Oct. Despite India’s order on blending, global sugar prices have tanked 13% since start of Dec.
- Brazil’s bumper sugar crop will depress near term prices. However, intensifying effects of El Niño could send sugar prices soaring during later part of next year.
Yen Soars past 200d DMA Clocking a Record Daily Move on BoJ Governor Remarks
- The Yen clocked its biggest one-day move since 12/Jan. It soared to 141.601 to the USD breaching past its 200d DMA before settling at 144.092.
- Overnight-Indexed swaps show a 45% (up from 3.5% chance just 2-days back) chance that the BOJ would end its negative interest rates policy at this month’s meeting.
- Leveraged funds have ramped up their net-short positioning in the yen, the most since April 2022, according to CFTC data. Liquidations might have triggered sharp moves.
Inflation Watch: Another Deflation Shocker from Europe? UK, Sweden and Norway Are Under the Loop!
- Ahead of a couple of big inflation weeks, we look into the details of the UK, Swedish, and Norwegian CPI here.
- Despite some signs of rapidly rising electricity prices, the overall picture will likely look soft and especially recreation and culture prices have the potential to surprise markedly on the downside.
- Conclusions up front:– The UK CPI is likely to look very soft.
Mint Macro Roundup: Dissecting The Recent Jobs Data
- Nonfarm payrolls showed 199k jobs added, higher than October and above expectations; Unemployment fell to 3.7% but wage growth strong at 4% YoY.
- Earlier this week, JOLTs survey showed job opening slide 6.7% to 8.73 million, lowest in 2.5 years with jobs declining across industries.
- Job market observed to be loosening and on-track to achieving soft-landing. going forward, it’s vital to watch for job losses.
The Weekly Market Monitor – Oil & China Bear Markets, but Liquidity Saves the Day!
- Despite the USD declining and OPEC pledging more production cuts, oil has entered a Bear Market. We discuss the disadvantages of being a (price) cartel.
- Will the Bank of Japan finally end its extremely loose monetary policy? While investors are betting it will happen as soon as mid-December, the latest inflation data and previous statements of central bank Governor Ueda suggest otherwise.
- Next to Federal Reserve hopium, the unanimous embracing of the soft landing, liquidity has boosted equities and other liquidity-driven asset classes like Bitcoin and Gold.
CX Daily: China’s Internet Content Kings Struggle to Keep Users Paying
- Internet / In Depth: China’s internet content kings struggle to keep users paying
Hong Kong /: Hong Kong remains key in finance, innovation, city’s leader says
AMEX /: American Express doubles down for majority stake in China bank card clearing business
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