In today’s briefing:
- Assessing “Big Short” Michael Burry’s Crash Warning
- How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond Market
Assessing “Big Short” Michael Burry’s Crash Warning
- A number of readers asked us to comment on Michael Burry’s forecast of a crash. We find Burry’s wildly bearish projection of S&P 1900 to be implausible.
- Nevertheless, the S&P 500 faces strong valuation and macro headwinds in the near future.
- On the other hand, conventional technical analysis view calls for market weakness and a bottom during the September–October time frame.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bond Market
- Cross-Asset signals from the commodity market indicate that bond prices are poised to rise, which should provide tailwinds for large-cap NASDAQ stocks.
- A key risk is continued market fears of rising rates from hawkish Fed rhetoric.
- Another risk is a possible sudden policy reversal in response to crisis conditions, which changes the narrative from recessionary conditions to renewed growth.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
