In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: The Path to Outperformance
- HEW: Trump Trade Trends Trump Value
- Overview #12 – Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 15 Nov 2024
- CX Daily: China Faces More Clashes if Trump Chooses Hawk Rubio as Secretary of State, Experts Say
- [ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook
- Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – October 14, 2024
- Luxembourg Economy – November 3, 2024
Asian Equities: The Path to Outperformance
- In our inaugural report on Asian Equities, we argue that this asset class is likely to outperform in the medium term, though the near term could be choppy.
- “Republican sweep” in the US could drive near term US equity outperformance. Higher US bond yields and stronger US Dollar could continue to drive foreign outflows in Asia as well.
- In the long term, far cheaper Asian valuations, favorable growth and demographics and eventual USD moderation driven by gradual Fed rate cuts enthuse us about Asia. Interesting opportunities galore here.
HEW: Trump Trade Trends Trump Value
- The US dollar and rates continued to rise over the past week, causing an increase in UK yields despite poor unemployment and GDP data. The possibility of a December Fed cut remains due to US inflation data.
- Bank Indonesia’s decision was the main event in a quiet week for monetary policy decisions.
- UK inflation saw a significant increase due to changes in regulated energy prices. Other awaited data includes flash PMIs and final HICP.
Overview #12 – Not Another Trump Trade!Time to Fade?
- A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
- In the markets we follow, China, Gold and the JPY most impacted
- Which ones should we fade and where has the trend changed?
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 15 Nov 2024
- Inflation and monetary policy remain pivotal themes globally.
- Asian markets, despite recent sell-offs, offer medium- to long-term growth prospects.
- Cryptocurrency and fiscal policies warrant closer scrutiny amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.
CX Daily: China Faces More Clashes if Trump Chooses Hawk Rubio as Secretary of State, Experts Say
- China faces more clashes if Trump chooses hawk Rubio as Secretary of State, experts say Rubio, if confirmed, would bring his “bias against China”
- Reporter’s Notebook: Peru unveils Chancay Port at APEC Summit … with a little help from China
- BNP Paribas cuts China investment banking jobs
[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook
- For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
- US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD – October 14, 2024
- During the period under consideration, i.e. September 12th, 2024, to October 14th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
- In the beginning, it faced a general increase, until September 26th where the pair faced a sharp decrease.
- After that, it fluctuated sideways in a slight but steady downward momentum, and by the end of the period the price traded at a lower level than September 12th.
Luxembourg Economy – November 3, 2024
- Luxembourg’s economy is projected to show moderate growth in 2024-2026, with real GDP growth rates of 1.26%, 2.68%, and 2.49% respectively, rebounding from a 1.09% contraction in 2023, according to the IMF.
- However, Real GDP per Capita is expected to decrease from €100,065.85 in 2022 to €97,065.86 by 2026.
- Total investments are projected to stay steady at 16-17% of GDP, while Gross National Savings are expected to decline slightly from 25.40% in 2022 to 23.19% in 2026.
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