In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: Be Selective – Focus on The “ROE Winners”
- Active Global Funds: Country Positioning – USA Highs, Japan Lows, Taiwan Record Ownership
- Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025
- India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins
- The Week at a Glance – Bessent’s Agenda, Fed Minutes, Core PCE, and EU HICP in Focus
- CX Daily: Livestreamed Stock Tips Worry Regulators as Novice Investors Rush In
- Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy
- Wrestling Euro Bears Before Christmas
- Zambia’s Copper Renaissance
Asian Equities: Be Selective – Focus on The “ROE Winners”
- Asia is cheap relative to the US – trading at less than 40% of US’s P/BV – but that’s because Asia’s ROE has consistently declined relative to US’s.
- Over the next couple of years Asian ROEs are forecast to revive relative to the US’s but all Asian markets are not forecast to participate in this recovery.
- The “ROE Winners” (rising forecast ROEs) are Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia. Indonesia to stay flat but solidly higher than Asian average. We are skeptical of HK/China and Thailand’s ROE recovery.
Active Global Funds: Country Positioning – USA Highs, Japan Lows, Taiwan Record Ownership
- USA hits record weights of 56.55% but remains a large underweight. Europe’s big 4 comprise a +6.75% overweight.
- Taiwan closes in on China & HK as ownership soars to record highs. Argentina hits fresh highs as Australia, Brazil and Sweden are increasingly avoided.
- Japan exposure falls to record lows of 4.24% and India overtakes China as the top EM country underweight among Global investors.
Demand Uncertainty To Influence Rubber Markets In Q1 2025
- Short term supply shortage
- US and EU demand uncertain
- Shipping cost spike in short term ahead of Trump’s tariff drive
India Politics: Modi and BJP Stabilize Support After State-Level Wins
- The BJP of Indian premier Modi convincingly won the Maharashtra state elections despite losing ground in the state’s parliamentary seats in the June 2025 general election.
- The Maharashtra result was not a one-off. The ruling coalition managed to hold its ground against the previously resurgent INDIA opposition bloc in other state contests.
- Modi and his party have corrected course sufficiently to stem any electoral bleeding, but risks from economic discontent and corruption-related controversies continue to weigh on public support.
The Week at a Glance – Bessent’s Agenda, Fed Minutes, Core PCE, and EU HICP in Focus
- Happy Monday! This week is relatively quiet on the economic data front, with the main releases being the FOMC meeting minutes from the last meeting, Core PCE, and European inflation data to round off the week.
- The most interesting development this week is how markets are reacting to the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent.
- Yields are down, gold is down, and equities are surging higher.
CX Daily: Livestreamed Stock Tips Worry Regulators as Novice Investors Rush In
- Livestreaming / Cover Story: Livestreamed stock tips worry regulators as novice investors rush in
- Trade /Analysis: Southeast Asia gained from Trump’s China tariffs
- Supply chains /In Depth: Trump is already shaking up U.S.-China trade
Cold Front in the US Dominates Natgas Prices // Chinese Soybean Data and the Fade of Its Economy
- Cold Front in the US dominates Natgas Prices During next week another cold front will arrive in the upper part of the US.
- The temperature anomaly is quite negative – accordingly, natgas prices are currently on the rise.
- As seasonally remain bearish and these temperature anomalies occur often during the winter months, we’ll keep our eye on short opportunities in the market.
Wrestling Euro Bears Before Christmas
- The Euro’s trend weakness reflects rate differentials that are already stretched, with ECB cut pricing at the extremes erroneously priced for the Fed two months ago.
- Labour market data matter, and not just to the Fed. Unemployment trends are even more hawkish in the Euro area, and the ECB should clarify the policy relevance of this.
- Seasonality also supports a fading of the fundamental consensus story. EURUSD hasn’t fallen into yearend since 2016, and crowded positioning could compound the reversal.
Zambia’s Copper Renaissance
- Copper is central to global infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy.
- Zambia, a key player in the Central African Copperbelt, holds immense promise for copper investors, boasting some of the world’s richest geological assets.
- This white paper explores Zambia’s copper mining landscape, highlighting the interplay of global demand, supply challenges, and Zambia’s evolving mining ecosystem.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
