Daily Brief Macro: Alum. and more

• Analyst sentiment continues to improve.  A net 26% of companies are seeing raised estimates up from net -6.5%. The average estimate revision across our universe is +1%, up from -6.5%.
• Analyst sentiment is overcrowded, to the bullish side, for Oilfield Services, Aerospace, Restaurants, Apparel Retail and Software.  They are bearish/crowded for Coal, Refiners, Engineering, Trucking, Semis, HR Services and REITs.
• More groups are seeing new raises than the opposite.  On the downside, we see Aluminum, Steel and Real Estate Development in accelerating downtrends.  Alcoholic Beverages estimates are in decelerating uptrends.

• We all woke up to a major macro surprise: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) widened the allowed trading band for the 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by 25 bps – 10y JGBs can now trade between -50 bps and +50 bps.
• While this doesn’t seem like a major change, it really is. To understand why, we need to take a small step back.
• For years, Japan implemented an aggressively dovish monetary policy stance.

Covid-19 /: Covid surge leaves blood banks begging for donations around China

Economy /: Key policy meeting highlights economic stability and restoring confidence

Property /: China real estate’s nagging woes are ‘top priority,’ state economist says