In today’s briefing:
- A Warning from a Market Leadership Review
- Lessons from a Study of Past Major Market Bottoms
A Warning from a Market Leadership Review
- The stock market has taken on a giddy tone in the wake of the tamer-than-expected inflation reports.
- However, the latest bull move in the S&P 500 looks exhaustive and the short-term outlook is bearish.
- Our base-case scenario continues to call for a re-test of the June lows.
Lessons from a Study of Past Major Market Bottoms
- We offer a study of past major bear market bottoms using factor and macro analysis to see how current circumstances are fit with the fresh bull story.
- We believe the most likely outcome will see the major market averages weaken and re-test the June lows in the coming months.
- While excessive bearish market positioning can create a squeeze higher, durable market bottoms just don’t look like this.
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