In today’s briefing:
- A Powerful Buy Signal, With Caveats
- Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (04 Oct 2024)
- U.S. September Nonfarm Payroll – A Strong Month and Less Downside Risk
A Powerful Buy Signal, With Caveats
- The combination of easier monetary policy by most global central banks and strong price momentum is equity bullish.
- However, investors should be aware of the risks to the growth outlook.
- Global institutions are underweight risk and they may be forced to play catch-up. But fast money risk appetite is elevated, which makes stock prices vulnerable to short-term setbacks.
Heard From Fortress Hill: Weekly Market Observations (04 Oct 2024)
- The center of this week market is still the impact of PBOC’s serial interest rate cuts and $800billion fund into the stock market.
- Assuming the LTV ratio to be 0.6 and public-private fund ratio at 1:1, there will be RMB 4 trillion fund released to trade stock.
- Divide this amount by 0.5 trillion transaction volume, all fund will dry up in about 8 trading days. After that, performance will depend on fundamentals and remnants of the euphoria.
U.S. September Nonfarm Payroll – A Strong Month and Less Downside Risk
- September’s non-farm payroll is well above consensus with a rise of 254k from 142k in August, above our in house forecast of 159K and the consensus of 150K.
- . Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% and average hourly earnings were above trend at 0.4% again with upward back revisions.
- This is clearly a strong report, even with a dip in the workweek to 34.2 from 34.3 hours.
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