In today’s briefing:
- A New Cyclical Bull?
- The Risks to the Disinflation and Soft-Landing Bull
- Steno Signals #58 – Rebound or recession? Or both?
A New Cyclical Bull?
- Technical buy signals are coming out of the woodwork, supported by strong price momentum and signs of broadening market breadth. Is this the start of a new cyclical bull?
- Ultimately, the bull and bear decision amounts to a judgment call on regime change.
- Is the economy emerging out of recession or is there a slowdown waiting around the corner to sideswipe stock prices and market expectations?
The Risks to the Disinflation and Soft-Landing Bull
- Nothing in investing is easy. While the disinflation and soft-landing narrative is the dominant one, sentiment could change very quickly.
- While we aren’t necessarily dismissing the bullish implications of the disinflation and soft-landing scenario, investors should be aware of the risks.
- Consider the implications of catastrophic success, the last-mile inflation problem and the risk of a recession.
Steno Signals #58 – Rebound or recession? Or both?
- We have spent the last week studying the business cycle intensively to gauge how various asset classes look at the cycle right now.
- It is safe to say that nothing has been normal in this post-Covid “cycle” and that is probably exactly the reason why we are currently stuck in a debate on whether the economy rebounds or goes into a recession.
- Let’s have a look at the evidence.
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