In today’s briefing:
- 9 Charts on the US CPI Report: Enough Downside to Prompt a Skip !
- Labor Watch – Hairdressers and Cleaning Ladies Are Holding the Labor Market Above Water
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – CPALL’s Recovery, ASSA Back on Track, and Amman Mineral IPO
- The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall
- Japan @ Inflexion
- Don’t Write off Hong Kong as a Vibrant Global Hub
- 1Q23 GDP Roundup and Outlook: Worst Case Scenario Averted
9 Charts on the US CPI Report: Enough Downside to Prompt a Skip !
- The evidence on inflation gathered through the month of May has been extremely dovish
- We see a high likelihood of US inflation printing below consensus as the broadening of the disinflation theme has continued through May
- The April CPI report was held up by Gasoline and Used Cars – both of which have changed trends since the April report
Labor Watch – Hairdressers and Cleaning Ladies Are Holding the Labor Market Above Water
- Taking a look at the recent NFP report, it is evident that the services sector is clearly what holds the labor market up
- We are beginning to see the first signs of a dramatic slowdown in the services and manufacturing sector judging by the ISM figures
- NFP might not tell the true story about the labor market based on the technicalities of the survey
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – CPALL’s Recovery, ASSA Back on Track, and Amman Mineral IPO
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB),. Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), Amman Mineral Internasional IPO, Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP), and GoTo (GOTO IJ).
- There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore economies, identifying potential cracks plus insights on Mitratel, Merdeka Copper Gold,Bumi Serpong Damai, and Nam Long Investment (NLG VN).
The Case for Oil // Farmer Sentiment continues to fall
- Farmer Sentiment continues to fall Producer sentiment fell to its weakest reading since July 2022 as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined 19 points to a reading of 104 in May.
- The Index of Future Expectations was down 22 points to a reading of 98 in May, while the Index of Current Conditions was down 13 points to a reading of 116.
- This month’s lower sentiment was fueled by drops in both of the barometer’s sub-indices and likely triggered by weakened crop prices, according to the University of Purdue.
Japan @ Inflexion
- Equity: It’s noteworthy that the Japan Index performance is gaining significant attention across several notable platforms, including CNBC and Chinese Wealth Management magazine.
- The assets of ETFs listed on Chinese exchanges that track Nikkei 225 doubled in May.
- It’s also essential to highlight Overseas investors bought a net JPY 2.7 trillion (USD19.3 billion) in May in Japanese equities/funds with the uptrend in equity prices, recording another month of heavy buying and taking YTD net inflows to JPY 4.1 trillion(USD 29.4 billion), which is quite remarkable.
Don’t Write off Hong Kong as a Vibrant Global Hub
- After the travails of dynamic zero-COVID, Hong Kong’s economy is back on the mend. The surge in retail sales and inbound tourism is helping to offset a trade slowdown.
- Are Hong Kong’s long-term growth prospects intact? Many of its traditional strengths such as the rule of law, an open society and its allure to global talent are in doubt.
- There are, however, new growth opportunities originating from developments in the mainland, particularly the Greater Bay Area, and regional trade integration.
1Q23 GDP Roundup and Outlook: Worst Case Scenario Averted
- Global growth continues to hold up, with indicators showing advanced and emerging markets chugging along. The worst fears of a global recession seem to be averted.
- The ongoing trade slump, however, darkens the outlook for export-reliant Asia. China’s faltering recovery also means that hoped-for positive spillovers are not forthcoming.
- Internal dynamics will dominate the cyclical outlook; continued resilience in private consumption and investments will bolster growth in emerging Asia.
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