In today’s briefing:
- 5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline
- USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?
- 5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline
- CX Daily: China Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending
- UK: Buying Votes With Inflationary Policy
5 things we watch: IFO, US rates, Earnings revisions, USD & Gasoline
- We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.
- This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.
- This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within Global macro: IFO, US Rates, Earnings revisions, The USD, Gasoline.
USD’o’meter: Is King USD about to reverse?
- In this piece, we will try to assess the USD outlook in a structured way by looking at:1) Relative rates, 2) Relative inflation, 3) Relative Growth, 4) Relative energy.
- We combine the four filters in an aggregate probability-based model and find that the USD is still likely to increase in value for the next few months.
- Let’s have a look at the details.
5 Things We Watch: IFO, US Rates, Earnings Revisions, USD & Gasoline
- We start off this week’s 5 Things We Watch by having a look at the Ifo survey coming up this Friday in the midst of the Schwarze Null ruling.
- This is followed by talking about US rates and Nvidia earnings and we then move on to talking about the USD while lastly finishing off with gasoline demand.
- Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government is challenged by the Constitutional Court’s ruling from last week on special fund financing outside the regular budget.
CX Daily: China Asks Banks to Boost Real Estate Lending
- Property / China drafts list of developers eligible for funding, asks banks to boost real estate lending
Israel-Hamas /: China calls for ‘early ceasefire’ in Gaza conflict in meeting with Arab-Islamic ministers
Personnel /: Premier Li takes helm of China’s top financial regulator
UK: Buying Votes With Inflationary Policy
- The UK Autumn Statement announced tax cuts that broadly spend the entire windfall from a less enormous current fiscal deficit while reinforcing inflation’s persistence.
- Voter income is boosted ahead of a general election through surging benefits, pensions, and minimum wage rates. National insurance cuts also raise take-home pay.
- Fiscal headroom of £13bn is preserved, although that uses the flexibility of extending the target date. Its existence still relies on excessively bullish potential GDP forecasts.
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