In today’s briefing:
- 5 Things We Watch – Freight Rates, Positioning, Liquidity, EUR-flation, Growth
- CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Enter 2024 Fighting Price War, Heightened EV Competition
- EUR Inflation Watch – The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1
5 Things We Watch – Freight Rates, Positioning, Liquidity, EUR-flation, Growth
- Welcome to the first 2024 edition of our ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always try to dissect global macro trends, how we see the world and how we trade it.
- The overall consensus this year seems to be locked in on a soft landing in the US, but in our view, risks of tail-end events are increasing, making macro more important than ever in order to navigate financial markets in 2024.
- Freight rates on routes with destinations in the Mediterranean (both shipments from Middle East and China) have generally been on the rise
CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Enter 2024 Fighting Price War, Heightened EV Competition
- Autos / Cover Story: Chinese carmakers enter 2024 fighting price war, heightened EV competition China’s automakers
Personnel /: China appoints first naval officer as minister of defense
Property /: Year in Review: China’s real estate sector in crisis
EUR Inflation Watch – The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1
- The smallest German state, Saarland, sneaked out its preliminary December inflation this morning and it was another soft surprise.
- Saarland CPI increased a tad less than 0.1% on the month, which is below 0.2% in seasonally adjusted terms.
- This is if anything a SOFT print relative to consensus expectations and as Saarland CPI explains 78% of the variability in the nationwide German CPI, it leaves a 0.1% MoM inflation print most likely for the German CPI.
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