In today’s briefing:
- 5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024
- Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence
- CX Daily: China’s Cloud Giants Seek Profits Abroad as Domestic Margins Dwindle
5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024
- The overwhelming consensus for 2024 continues to be a soft landing in the US with interest rates coming firmly down while growth continues on autopilot, which leaves a very decent, almost goldilocksy, outlook for risk assets.
- But what if we don’t end in a soft landing, but rather one of the tail-end scenarios of either 1) a boom driven by easier financial conditions, which would force the Fed to push back a bit on rate cuts or 2) a recession, which would imply rates much lower than what consensus currently is.
- We have chosen 5 “likely unlikely” scenarios for 2024, which are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
Mint Macro Roundup: Inflation Cools in US, UK, & Japan Accentuating Central Bank Policy Divergence
- Inflation across the US, UK and Japan slowed sharply on the back of declining goods prices.
- Rapidly cooling inflation brings into focus the diverging central bank policies – BoJ remains ultra-loose, Fed has turned dovish, while BoE continues to remain hawkish.
- Personal spending in the US remains strong, providing upside to economic growth in Q4, but also risk of higher inflation.
CX Daily: China’s Cloud Giants Seek Profits Abroad as Domestic Margins Dwindle
- Cloud / In Depth: China’s cloud giants seek profits abroad as domestic margins dwindle
- Central bank /Chart of the Day: PBOC gets major leadership reshuffle in 2023
- Outbound /Year in Review: China’s outbound businesses pivot to Latam, Middle East
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