Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Softbank Group, Hamamatsu Photonics Kk and more

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong
Last Week in Event SPACE: JAFCO, Jardine Cycle, Softbank, Star Health
Hamamatsu Photonics (6965 JP): Earning Momentum Fading

Weekly Deals Digest (11 Dec) – Toshiba, Bigtincan, Nitro, Warrego, Xingda, VinFast, Weilong

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – VinFast (1905332D VN) pre-markets a US$1bn IPO, I-Tail (ITC TB) and Sunshine Insurance (6963 HK) have tepid debuts, Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) launches a US$141m IPO.
Event-Driven developments – Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Xingda International (1899 HK), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP).

In principle, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) still wants to be greenmailed to get Murakami-san out.
Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP)i is expensive here – relative to historical values – and from an implied stub perspective. And the MSCI inclusion event has now passed.
If you think this is a “risk”, then you want to be long when the discount is wide and Softbank Group (9984 JP) is monetising assets in some way.

As expected, FY Sep-22 results were ahead of guidance. Management is forecasting further growth this fiscal year, but guiding for a YoY decline in operating profit in 2H.
In addition, the depreciation of the yen, which added 5% to sales at 17% to operating profit last fiscal year, has reversed, economies have weakened and interest rates are up.
We continue to recommend profit taking. We would like to buy the shares at ¥6,000 – 15% down from the Dec. 9 close.

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