In today’s briefing:
- JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- USD Trade Splinters
- Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal
- Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows Increased; Next Is Foreigners Vs Buybacks Vs GPIF
- On 8 May I wrote JAPAN FLOW: Foreign Investor Inflows May Increase. Since the data used in that insight, TSE data shows net foreign buying of ¥3.5trln+.
- Investor flows appear to work in patterns which are correlated to TOPIX gains and outperformance vs S&P500.
- The history of autocorrelation of net buying suggests while the current streak may end, a four week average of net buys could remain positive for a while.
USD Trade Splinters
- Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike.
- Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
- We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.
Weekly Deals Digest (18 Jun) – Toshiba, Kenedix, Abacus Storage King, Austal, Hailan, Yitai Coal
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), JD Industrials (2231713D CH) and JD Property (JDP HK) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Kenedix Office Investment Co (8972 JP), Abacus Property (ABP AU), Austal Ltd (ASB AU), Tesserent Ltd (TNT AU), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK), Yitai Coal.
Macbee Planet (7095) – Firing on All Cylinders
- Q1-4 FY4/2023 results were ahead of revised company guidance and our earnings estimates, highlighting the company’s success in 1) driving demand at both existing and newly acquired customers, and 2) implementing Marketing Technology services that are improving the overall sales mix and driving margin growth.
- On this fundamentally robust basis, the company acquired Net Marketing in April 2023, an advertising agency that will allow access to new customers in which to sell-in profitable Marketing Technology services and replicate its effective model, as well as gain exposure to a more diversified range of market sectors.
- Strong outlook for FY4/2024 – we revise our earnings estimates for FY4/2024 and beyond, reflecting the following: 1) stronger topline growth in Analytics Consulting, 2) a more enhanced trajectory of profitability improvement in the medium term, given the success of Marketing Technology services to date.
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