Daily Brief Japan: SBI Shinsei Bank, Ushio Inc, Takeda Pharmaceutical, China SCE, SUMCO Corp, Softbank Group and more

In this upcoming flash webinar, Insight Provider Travis Lundy will discuss the recent privatisation offer from SBI Holdings (8473 JP) for SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP). Japan’s SBI Holdings Inc said last Friday that it would take SBI Shinsei Bank private by launching a 154.2 billion yen (US$1.14 billion) tender offer, at 2,800 yen per share. Travis will go over the background and opportunities ahead of Monday’s Japan trading hours.

The Webinar will be hosted on Monday, 15 May 2023, 07:30 SGT.

Travis Lundy has 20+ years of experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies, with most of that time spent managing money.

• Ushio Inc (6925 JP) reported earnings on 11 May, with revenue +17.6% on the year, OP +21.4%, and NP +8.7% on the year. Div was unchanged at ¥50/share.
• Forecasts are for revenue +7.4%, OP -21.2%, and NP -27% (¥90.6/EPS). But importantly, the company also announced a HUUUUUGE Buyback. 
• Buying ≦20mm shares (17.0%) spending ≦¥30bn from 29May2023 to 10May2024. That’s 13.3% at the 12 May close. How this will work is unknown. There’s less detail than one would want.

• Takeda reported FQ4 and full-year FY03/2023 results. Reported revenue increased 9.5% YoY to ¥956.2bn (vs consensus ¥938.6bn) and OP of ¥88.6bn (vs consensus ¥144.5bn) vs an operating loss in 4QFY03/22.
• Full-Year revenue and OP increased 12.8% and 6.4% YoY to ¥4.0trn and ¥490.5bn respectively. While reported revenue beat guidance and consensus, OP fell slightly below these two.
• Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) ’s FY03/2024E guidance is too conservative as we think that the company has been careful not to disappoint investors if it fails to meet its own target.

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

1. Softbank Group
2. Wynn Macau Ltd
3. Central China Real Estate
4. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
5. Agile Property Holdings

and more…

• Q1’23 revenues of ¥109.9 billion, better than forecasted, down 6.4% QoQ but up 10% YoY.
• Q2’23 forecasted flat sequentially, no full year 2023 forecast provided
• There’s a major headwind looming on the horizon for the broader silicon wafer segment…

• 4QFY22 saw the best result for the Vision Funds since 3QFY21; SVF private companies saw minimal valuation write-downs last quarter, and we suspect valuations may still be too optimistically marked
• Masa’s debts to SoftBank stand at USD5.2bn in 4QFY22; in addition, the group’s credit risk exposure to troubled company WeWork was over USD1.1bn at fiscal year end and going higher
• Softbank shares trade at a 46% discount to the stated NAV; with the Alibaba valuation “cushion” largely consumed, the potential Arm IPO is critical but private company valuations remain questionable