In today’s briefing:
- Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?
- Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN
- Takigami Steel Construction (TYO 5918) – A Portfolio of Public Securities
Rakuten (4755 JP) – Trying To Goose The Stock Price Before Year-End or Mobile Sub Numbers for 2025?
- Today, Rakuten (4755 JP) announced a new shareholder benefit (株主優待) program today, to reward shareholders as of end-December 2024. The stated goal? To “thank shareholders”…
- …And provide more people with the opportunity to try out the benefits of Rakuten Mobile, with 1yr free of a 30GB/mo mobile plan. There are conditions, but it’s juicy.
- Last year’s 3mo plan was given with one day of notice. This year’s larger full-year govt gets 3+wks. They are juicing the sub numbers for 2025.
Mitsubishi Logisnext (7105 JP): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) Seeks to Exit
- Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) shares rose 26% after the Nikkei reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP) is contemplating selling its 64.5% stake.
- Logisnext confirmed the sale process. In a fair process, minorities should receive the tender offer price plus the proportionate share of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ TOB tax benefits.
- Despite the rise in share price, Logisnext trades at a discount to peer multiples. At an offer of JPY2,000, Logisnext would trade in line with median peer multiples.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I Holdings, ESR Group, Sanrio, HKBN
- Reportedly, Ito Junro’s MBO for Seven & I (3382 JP) includes a US assets IPO to help pay down MBO debt to Japanese banks. Possible strategic mistake by Ito-san here.
- Starwood/Warburg Pincus’ firm Offer for ESR Group (1821 HK) secures support from 30.79% of the register.
- We may be wrong on Sanrio (8136 JP) by a big factor but the multiple and the concentration risk of momentum factor means you are in an illiquid stock.
Takigami Steel Construction (TYO 5918) – A Portfolio of Public Securities
Company is marginally profitable and owns a portfolio of securities (mostly public stocks) and rental real estate worth ~3x its market cap (~¥18,000 /share vs ¥6,000 stock price).
These figures assign zero value to the operating business and its fixed assets.
Activist investor is the #1 shareholder with a 17.4%. #2 shareholder owns 11% and will likely align with activist. Insiders don’t own enough to easily block future activism.
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