In today’s briefing:
- Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Post-IPO Trading Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks (Part 3)
- Seven & I: Founder’s Death Fuels Value Act’s Activism, Angers The Board, Reduces Short Thesis Risk
- Nidec (6594) | FY3/24 Guidance Risk
Rakuten Bank (5838) IPO – Post-IPO Trading Volume Decay and RB’s Place Among Banks (Part 3)
- To look at the Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) IPO and how trading and pricing may occur, some are looking at SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP).
- To understand the movements of SBI Sumishin Net Bank, it may help to look at other IPOs in Japan and how they trade post-IPO.
- I looked at the last 200+ IPOs in Japan to understand volume decay and price evolution. It leads to suggestions for investors regarding Rakuten Bank.
Seven & I: Founder’s Death Fuels Value Act’s Activism, Angers The Board, Reduces Short Thesis Risk
- Value Act’s investor activism campaign picked up steam following the death of Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) founder.
- The board of Seven & I may have been aggravated by Value Act’s unreasonable demands and timing, leading to their first angry response in over two years.
- The damaged relationship between Seven & I and Value Act reduces the upside risk to our short thesis from disposal of underperforming businesses.
Nidec (6594) | FY3/24 Guidance Risk
- We do not expect any major surprises when Nidec reports FY3/23 earnings on 24 April
- However, we believe that there is a significant risk that the company will guide below analyst consensus for FY3/24
- We are bearish going into results. After that, there could be an opportunity to turn bullish again on FY3/25 PE of 14x
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