In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor
- Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover – Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Descente, Shin Kong Financial, T Gaia, Shinsegae E&C, MPHB, Pacific Smiles
- Weekly Deals Digest (06 Oct) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, K Bank, ASMPT, Samson, T-Gaia
- Will TSE’s Mock Engagement Measures Work?
Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor
- The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
- There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event.
- There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.
Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover – Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)
- In August, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
- Everyone had expected a delay, but the stock fell. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further upset. But Ibiden and tech are rebounding.
- At 9% it was a raging buy;post-dip at 7% it was good. Now it’s 6+%. Still wide, still interesting, still stable but year-end path dependency… So I still like Ibiden.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Descente, Shin Kong Financial, T Gaia, Shinsegae E&C, MPHB, Pacific Smiles
- I tally 44 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Three new deals discussed this week: T Gaia (3738 JP)‘s and Shinsegae E&C (034300 KS) Tender Offers, and MPHB (MPHB MK)‘s SCR. Plus ASMPT (522 HK) in the crosshairs. Again.
- Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT), Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), and Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK).
Weekly Deals Digest (06 Oct) – Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, K Bank, ASMPT, Samson, T-Gaia
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), Rigaku Holdings (268A JP), K Bank (279570 KS) and China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Samson Holding (531 HK), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP).
Will TSE’s Mock Engagement Measures Work?
- TSE’s classification translates into three groups: companies which can independently increase capital profitability, companies which haven’t yet fully implemented plans, and companies which haven’t yet responded to “TSE’s request.”
- Mock engagements by TSE, which doesn’t have voting rights, will be focused on whether they actually make the company think about management strategies and implement them, thereby increasing corporate value.
- To help companies effectively implement “TSE’s request,” an idea would be to offer time-limited discount on listing fee paid to TSE by companies that have significantly increased their market capitalization.
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