Daily Brief Japan: Hokuhoku Financial Group, Resona Holdings, Daiichi Sankyo and more

In today’s briefing:

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down – Opportunity Abounds, Still
Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game
Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Landmark ADC Deal Pushes FY24 Revenue Guidance Higher

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down – Opportunity Abounds, Still

40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.

The latest BoJ adjustment to its yield curve control lifts the hard yield ceiling of 1% on 10 year JGBs, making it “a reference” and allowing yields to exceed it
10 year JGB yields are close to 1%, with Japanese bond yields steepening further which is positive for Japanese banks, especially those with a high share of floating-rate credit exposures
We stick with our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Hachijuni; we add Concordia to our buy list for its high share of floating rate credit exposure

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) reported strong H1FY24 results, with double-digit growth in revenue, core operating profit, and net profit, mainly driven by its global mainstay product Enhertu.
Daiichi Sankyo and Merck entered into a global development and commercialization agreement for three of Daiichi Sankyo’s drug candidates, for a total potential consideration of up to $22 billion.
Daiichi Sankyo has raised FY24 revenue, core operating profit, and net profit forecast by 7%, 11%, and 17%, respectively. FY24 revenue is expected to grow 21% YoY to ¥1,550 billion.

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