In today’s briefing:
- Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
- Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
- NVDA’s ‘Quantum Day’ Fails to Live up to the Hype. Micron Beats, and Softbank Acquires Ampere.
- Instilling Expectations Was Positive, but Interest Quickly Shifting from Seriousness to Performance
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
- Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
- He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
- This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.
Idemitsu (5019) – Buyback Announced, Executed, To Be Executed Again; Pressure & Timing
- In February, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) announced a new buyback to start when the then-existing one had not yet been completed. This is a pattern the last few years.
- On Tuesday, Idemitsu announced the method. Shareholder structure means there is pressure here, and its major peer sees buyback pressure drop imminently.
- Be aware of tilts and timing, and what might come in May.
NVDA’s ‘Quantum Day’ Fails to Live up to the Hype. Micron Beats, and Softbank Acquires Ampere.
- Huang throws cold water on a potential TSMC led deal for INTC fab business, saying he ‘wasn’t invited’ to any discussions.
- Micron guidance beats consensus which should be a positive for related names such as Micronics.
- CoWoS and advanced packing maker Shibaura Mechtronics raised guidance on Wednesday ahead of street, yet stock still trading around recent lows points to further upside.
Instilling Expectations Was Positive, but Interest Quickly Shifting from Seriousness to Performance
- The reorganization of Panasonic Holdings was far from restructuring its business portfolio, as it brought highly profitable subsidiaries and affiliates into the parent company while leaving low-profit businesses alone.
- Although Panasonic’s disclosure was successful as IR in instilling “expectations” in investors by showing targets, a possibility cannot be denied that it’s temporary phenomenon that came at market turning point.
- Now, 3 years after “TSE’s request,” many investors are looking to improve profitability by restructuring their business portfolios, and will likely demand steady results year after year.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Softbank Group
- In the US, the FOMC has unanimously voted to maintain the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the FOMC noted that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased”, removing previous language that the risks to achieving employment and inflation goals are “roughly in balance”.
- Meanwhile, the Fed dot plot showed that the US central bank’s officials continue to see a median of two 25-bp rate cuts in 2025, two cuts in 2026 and one in 2027, with the long-run Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.0%.
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