In today’s briefing:
- Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris
- Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers
- Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers
- Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer
Welbe (6556 JP) – MBO by Polaris
- On Thursday after the close, an entity tied to Polaris Capital announced an MBO of Welbe Inc (6556 JP). (Note this is Welbe not Welby Inc (4438 JP)).
- The MBO by Tender Offer is set at ¥1,089/share is at a 29.952% premium to Thursday’s last trade. Coincidentally. It is well below where it traded 3-5 years ago.
- If large domestic financial investors want a bump, we might see some fun, but I expect there is enough ownership willing to tender to get this over the hump.
Dover Corporation: Delivering Engineered Solutions For Industry Needs & Safety! – Major Drivers
- Dover Management’s Q4 2023 earnings indicated a generally positive company performance in a challenging market context.
- CEO Richard Tobin and CFO Brad Cerepak conveyed a forward looking stance based on Q4’s market conditions following on from Q3, focusing on maintaining production levels to balance channel inventories.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Stanley Black & Decker: Cost Savings Through Supply Chain Transformation & Other Major Drivers
- Stanley Black & Decker Management has expressed an optimistic outlook on their financial performance for the year 2024.
- Despite facing challenging market conditions during 2023, the company demonstrated solid performance, with significant progress in two of their most important focus areas—generating above $850 million free cash flow and the continuous improvement of adjusted gross margin through each quarter.
- Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
Magyar Vagon/Talgo: Looming Takeover Offer
- Trading in the shares of Spanish rolling stock manufacturer Talgo SA (TLGO SM) is suspended pending a possible €5/share takeover offer from Hungarian group Magyar Vagon.
- Stock market performance of Talgo has been lacklustre. Now, at €4.79, the shares are trading above comparables, in line with my fair value estimate (DCF-based) of €4.76/share.
- Top investors (>45%) seem very willing to cash in and I would imagine that Magyar Vagon has had the time to seek green light assurances from the Spanish Government. Long.
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