In today’s briefing:
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
- Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact
- IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand
- BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield
- UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn
- Aker Carbon Capture: Discount to NAV, Potential Capital Return, and Aker Horizons’ Debt Challenges
- IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update
- MillerKnoll, Inc – 2QFY25 Adj. EPS $0.55
- Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Jun 25: ~US$5.9bn Collective One-Way Flows
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
- Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.
Korea FSC’s Stabilization Fund: Breaking Down the Buzz and Flow Impact
- With the Fed shock pushing the won past 1,450 and the KOSPI down, it’s time to dig into the stabilization fund—its size, timing, and which stocks will catch the flow.
- With ₩10T in play, even spread over 10 stages, it could drive significant price impact. NPS’s ₩1.5T injection in December shows how even smaller flows move the market.
- The FSC plans to focus on KOSPI 200 and broad market ETFs, with new ETFs like the Value-Up Index likely getting more flow—target stocks in both for bigger impact.
IGI (India) IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and Strong Overall Demand
- International Gemmological Institute (India) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
- IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance and IPO valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): Lease Rate Surge to Boost Earnings; Undervalued Stock with 4.5% Div Yield
- Global aviation supply continues to suffer from various supply chain disruptions, driving up lease rates and aircraft values and benefiting aircraft lessors, such as BOC Aviation (BOCA)
- Although BOCA’s interim results were disappointing due to delayed aircraft deliveries, I expect its momentum to recover in 2025, driven by incoming aircraft and lower interest costs.
- Stock is trading at 0.9x PB, nearing its historical trough of 0.8x, and offering a decent 5% dividend yield.
UBTech Robotics US$1.9bn Lockup Expiry – Needs Some Selling to Improve Its Liquidity
- UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) was listed in Hong Kong on 29th Dec 2023 after it raised US$130m. Its one-year lockup will expire on 28th Dec 2024.
- UBTech Robotics is engaged in artificial intelligence (AI)-empowered robotics in China, dedicated to the innovation of humanoid robots and development and sales of smart service robotic solutions.
- In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.
Berli Jucker (BJC TB) – Big C on the Turn
- Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024.
- The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance.
- Berli Jucker‘s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive.
Aker Carbon Capture: Discount to NAV, Potential Capital Return, and Aker Horizons’ Debt Challenges
- Aker Carbon Capture (ACC) trades at a 21% discount to net cash, with a market cap of NOK 3.6bn versus NOK 4.6bn cash.
- Aker Horizons, ACC’s parent, faces liquidity challenges with NOK 6.1bn debt due by early 2026 and limited cash reserves.
- ACC’s potential capital return announcement could narrow the discount to NAV, with risks of minority shareholder dilution.
IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (9119 JP): Research update
- FY24 OP WAS REVISED DOWN GIVEN SURGING VARIOUS COSTS.
- NO CHANGE IN MEDIUM-TERM PLAN TARGETS.
- IINO revised its FY24 guidance from OP of ¥19,200mil (+0.7% YoY) on sales of ¥145,000mil (+5.1% YoY) to OP of ¥17,400mil (-8.7% YoY) on sales of ¥146,000mil (+5.8%YoY).
MillerKnoll, Inc – 2QFY25 Adj. EPS $0.55
- MLKN bettered our expectations for revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate) and adjusted EPS (+$0.03 versus our estimate) even as industry conditions remained challenged.
- Gross margin, down 33 bps to 38.8%, was affected by product mix, while the 81-bp decline in operating margin to 7.1% was due to higher variable and compensation expenses andthe need to ‘preload’ marketing expense in Global Retail even as the calendar split the critical holiday/cyber promotional period between 2Q and 3Q.
Americas Contract and Global Retail posted solid quarters amid industry headwinds, while International Contract demand (typically more variable) was down.
Amaero International Ltd – More milestones met, moving closer to commercialisation
- RaaS has published a flash comment on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following the company’s recent announcements that it has ordered its third EIGA and that it has secured Aerospace Quality Management System AS9100D accreditation for the Tennessee facility for the manufacturing and testing of metal powder and PM-HIP production, both important milestones on the path to commercialisation.
- We have already incorporated the company’s capex guidance in our forecasts so do not anticipate any change to our estimates from these announcements.
- Our base-case DCF valuation is $1.16/share, fully diluted, which represents potential capital upside of 346%.
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