In today’s briefing:
- KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
- JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
- Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality
- Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
- Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
KOSPI Size Index Migration: Names to Trade as We Are 30D Towards Effective
- Amorepacific Group is more likely to remain in LargeCap due to its share price surge earlier this year. Instead, Hyundai Autoever will likely face a large→mid migration.
- Of Small→Mid migrants. Sebang and Kum Yang deserve attention, as they will rank high in the Mid due to the rapid market cap growth over the past six months.
- YTD performance seems to have a higher correlation with individual sector performance than causality with this event. So, there is still a circumstantial probability that justifies the trade.
JGC (1963 JP) – A ToSTNeT Buyback Is NOT a ToSTNeT Buyback and Adjusted EV Vs Adjusted EBITDA Is OK.
- Engineering & Construction firm Jgc Corp (1963 JP) on Friday announced 9M results. Full-Year forecasts were revised, with revenue lowered, but OP, RP, and NP unchanged.
- The company then also announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback of up to 4.77% of shares out for ¥20bn to be executed Monday 13 February pre-open. But details matter.
- Four Important Takeaways: 1) sometimes a ToSTNeT-3 buyback is not a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, 2) that can be a good sign, and 3) sometimes Adjusted EV vs Adjusted EBITDA is OK.
Tokyo Electron (8035 JP): MAGIC Versus Reality
- The market welcomed TEL’s 3Q results and new guidance, but sales, profits and margins continue to decline year-on-year.
- An optimistic consensus sees a new cyclical high in the second half of the decade, but avoids the question of disengagement from China.
- Inventories are at a record high. Valuations out to FY Mar-25 do not look attractive.
Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan
- The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected.
- Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares.
- The Nikkei didn’t write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at “about ¥2trln“.
Weekly Deals Digest (12 Feb) – Pertamina Geothermal, Toshiba, Newcrest, Nitro, Boustead, Sabana
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Pertamina Geothermal (0125738D IJ) guides to the low end of the IDR875-880 price range and Hesai Group (HSAI US) has a good debut.
- Event-Driven developments – Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Ihara Science (5999 JP), Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP).
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