In today’s briefing:
- Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
- KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
- StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
- Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
- JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations
- Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update
Keisei Electric (9009) Share Buyback – Interesting Dynamics & Opportunity
- In late February, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced a 5.0mm share (2.96%) ¥33bn buyback, to be executed in the following 3 months. That meant likely ToSTNeT-3.
- I thought that mildly bullish. Shares rose 0.05% the next day. Then we got an OLC offering announcement. I thought that bearish. The stock popped early but fell hard.
- Today the announcement. It IS a ToSTNeT-3. tomorrow. At ¥6,320/share. But it is an Accelerated Share Repurchase. Which changes things. Or it doesn’t. But it bears watching closely, maybe acting.
KCC Corp: Taking a Closer Step to Separating the Ownership Structures of the KCC Group
- There is an increasing probability that KCC Corp is closer to separating the ownership structures of the three Chung brothers regarding the various KCC Group related companies.
- KCC’s 9.17% stake in Samsung C&T is worth 2.8 trillion won. KCC’s stake in Samsung C&T is worth 117% of KCC’s own market cap.
- According to our valuation analysis, it suggests NAV of 355,925 won per share, representing a 30% upside from current levels.
StubWorld: Keisei’s ToSTNeT-3 Buyback. Stay Bearish
- Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)‘s previously announced buyback is now confirmed to be a ToSTNeT-3 buyback. But also an accelerated share repurchase.
- Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics’ Q423 Results
- In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth & solid margin improvement
- We analyze the impacts of JD.com & Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics’ Q423
- Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view
JetBlue – Positive 1Q Momentum Inspires Confidence 2024 Can Beat Expectations
- 1Q24 upgrade from JetBlue increases our confidence that consensus is too low for 2024.
- Investor Day on 30 May will provide the next leg of revenue self-help initiatives.
- We model a minor net profit of $22m in 2025, versus consensus expectations for further losses, and the next 3 months are crucial for the carrier’s long-term prospects.
Nagase (8012): Q3 FY03/24 Update
- Nagase & Co Ltd (8012 JP) is a trading company that specializes in chemicals.
- FY03/23 results: Nagase reported full-year consolidated sales of JPY912.9bn, gross profit of JPY155.4bn, operating profit of JPY33.4bn, recurring profit of JPY32.5bn.
- Nagase’s medium-term business plan, ACE 2.0, announced in May 2021, set key goal indicators for FY03/26 of consolidated operating profit of JPY35.0bn or above and ROE of 8.0% or above.
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