Daily Brief Industrials: Golden Energy & Resources, JD Logistics, ZTO Express and more

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Jan) – Origin Energy, Warrego, Golden Energy, Yashili, Kingston, O2Micro
JD Logistics(2618.HK) 4Q22 Preview: Topline Reacceleration Supported by Retail Recovery
ZTO Express(ZTO.US) 4Q22 Preview: Maintain Leadership and Benefit from Industry Rebound

Merger Arb Mondays (23 Jan) – Origin Energy, Warrego, Golden Energy, Yashili, Kingston, O2Micro

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), 111 Inc (YI US).
Lowest spreads – Essential Metals (ESS AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Nippon Steel Trading.

We expect JDL (including Deppon) to report C4Q22 net revenue in line with cons., and non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.5ppt.
We expect JDL’s top line to reaccelerate starting in C2Q23, supported by recovery of JD GMV, growing standalone delivery services, and returning demand for integrated supply chain services.
Increasing scale and improving operating efficiency in warehousing and transportation will contribute to JDL’s margin expansion. We upgrade JDL to BUY rating and raise TP to HK$ 21.

Based on our tracking, ZTO’s parcel volume in C4Q22 increased 4.5% YoY and 4.1% QoQ,and its market share reached 21.8%, up 1.6ppt YoY and down (0.4ppt) QoQ due to seasonality.
ZTO benefits from the recovery of eCommerce and industry volume. It is highly competitive both in pricing and in service quality, which fend off peers under escalating competition into 2023.
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$35.0 due to industry rebound and ZTO’s competitive edges in service and pricing. Our TP implies 23x P/2023E.

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