In today’s briefing:
- Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA
- Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs
- S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
- FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba
- Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA
- It was a busy week with the implementation of the MSCI Nov SAIR and the Hang Seng December rebalance, plus a lot of announcements for the FTSE indices.
- The coming week has the implementation of the December rebalance for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ 150 Index and a range of indices in China.
- Inflows to iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) during the week as markets move higher on expectations of slower rate hikes from the Fed.
Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs
- Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) disclosed a revised conditional VGO from the Tangs at S$0.75, a 4.2% premium to the previous offer of S$0.72. The offer is final.
- The offeror (47.27% of outstanding shares) and immediate family represent 50.49% of outstanding shares or 48.63% of diluted shares, which is just shy of the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition.
- The bump was to increase the chances of privatisation rather than hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread is 1.4%.
S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
- Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will replace Lendlease Group (LLC AU) in the S&P/ASX 50 Index, while Monadelphous (MND AU) will replace St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU) in the S&P/ASX 200.
- The largest impact from passive trading will be on Monadelphous (MND AU) while the largest flow will be on Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU).
- There appears to be significant short positioning on Lendlease Group (LLC AU) as cumulative excess volume and short interest continue to rise.
FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change
- The index changes for the FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 and Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 indices for the December 2022 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday.
- There will be one change for the Taiwan 50 Index and three changes for the Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 Index.
- In this insight, we take a closer look at the possible explanations for this surprise and our index flow expectations for this Rebalance event.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba
- Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders vote next week. Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders are awaiting their Circular. Expect both sets of shareholders will approve. The optics and performance look good.
- Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU) SPAC Offer is a high-cost red-herring. Management who support this takeover should be fired.
- Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” bought 25+% of Toyo Construction (1890 JP), then offered to buy it out. Negotiations are ongoing. We still don’t really know what is going on.
Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final
- In Chip Eng Seng: Low-Balled MBO At $0.72/Share, I thought there was scope for a bump. But then the Tang family bought a 9.02% stake on market.
- The Tangs have now bumped the Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) to S$0.75/share, up from S$0.72/share, and declared the terms final.
- The Offer remains conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. With 47.27% in the bag, this is done.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport
- There are 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
- Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU)‘s low-balled Offer; Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)‘s desperate SPAC takeover.
- Key updates took place for: Warrego Energy (WGO AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), and Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP).
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