Daily Brief Industrials: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings, Hanwha Ocean , Braemar Shipping Services PLC, Stericycle Inc and more

• Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) was near an all-time high in late March when it closed at ¥2,041 the day AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) bid ¥3,000/share.
• That was hostile, and C&F’s Board reacted swiftly, looking for a market check and competitive process. It got one. It was VERY successful in getting the best bid. 
• SG Holdings (9143 JP) has bid ¥5,740 – a very full multiple and 91% higher than AZ-Com’s price. I don’t expect an overbidder. Huge governance win for Japan minorities. 

• We discuss the end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 45 stocks in Korea in June 2024, among which 5 are in KOSPI and 40 are in KOSDAQ.
• These 45 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in June and could underperform relative to the market.
• The top three market cap stocks including those of which at least 1% of outstanding shares could be sold in June include Hanwha Ocean, LS Materials, and Komico. 

• Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) has recommended SG Holdings (9143 JP)’s JPY5,740 tender offer, a 91.3% premium to AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)’s JPY3,000 hostile offer. 
• SG Holdings’ offer premium is stupendous. However, the offer values C&F at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 27.2x vs. Alps Logistics (9055 JP) offer at a CY2024 EV/EBITDA of 29.2x. 
• The Board deserves credit. AZ-COM Maruwa is unlikely to engage in a bidding war as SG Holding’s offer has the Board’s recommendation and comes with a hefty takeover premium. 

Braemar’s FY24 results were in line with expectations with revenues flat, but operating profits down, having been hit by one-off costs and strong comparatives. The underlying operations continue to expand and diversify, which drove an 8% increase in FY24 fixtures, and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook for FY25 is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying revenue and operating profit estimates for FY25 and FY26, but rolled over the base year for the valuation, which results in a modest increase in the valuation from 500p to 535p per share, offering c 70% upside.

• This is a special one-time report on Stericycle as the company is exploring a sale.
• Its recent results paint a largely positive picture for the company, with some minor setbacks due to the implementation of the new ERP system.
• As Stericycle explores a potential sale, the company continues to target improvements in operations to increase efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations of improved results in the coming quarters.