In today’s briefing:
- Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case
- CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Surge in Overall New Order Momentum
- Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)
Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case
- Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
- In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
- The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.
CIMC Enric (3899 HK): Surge in Overall New Order Momentum
- CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) has a solid 3Q23 with excellent new order pick-up, surging by 52.8% YoY on the back of strengths in clean energy and liquid food segments.
- Hydrogen energy revenue is on target to reach Rmb700m in FY23. Meanwhile, management revealed that there is a slight gross margin expansion so far this year.
- With order backlog rising 27.6% YoY to Rmb22.2bn at end-9M23, earnings outlook is well protected. Its net cash position is another credit, making its premium multiples justified.
Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)
- Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?
- Fuel price hasn’t risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either
- Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary
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