Daily Brief Indonesia: Bukalapak, Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Prodia, Bank Mandiri Persero, Indika Energy, Mitra Adiperkasa, Qoala and more

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) may have disappointed some in missing on TPV but that is unimportant when it executes convincingly on improving take rates for both marketplace and its Mitra business. 
• The number of Mitra Bukalapak partners has increased to over 16m, with active Mitras taking increasing services and higher take rate products from Buka’s marketplace and specialty stores.
• Bukalapak beat on revenues and adjusted EBITDA and its guidance for adjusted EBITDA-positive by 4Q2023, with continuing improvements to take rates driving improvements. Valuations are attractive at <1x FY2024E EV/Sales.

• Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) is one of the most interesting consumer staples players in Indonesia, with a leading position in dairy and specifically yoghurt, and increasingly premium consumer foods.
• 4Q2022 saw a slowdown in sales growth as consumers returned to the mall due to inflationary pressure but December saw a sharp recovery and 2023 should see continued recovery.
• Flavoured UHT Milk and a new Yoghurt stick aimed at the mass market will help to fuel growth and raw material cost pressures have started to alleviate. Valuations are attractive. 

• Prodia (PRDA IJ) FY2022 results saw declines in revenues and profits but from a COVID-high base and the numbers are now well-above 2019, with strong prospects ahead.
• The company is seeing a return to routine testing with tests per visit back to pre-COVID and revenues per visit also rising strongly, with a diverse customer base providing comfort.
• Prodia also has an increasing digital angle with the rising use of its app and a new app that tracks patients’ health just launched. Prodia (PRDA IJ) is too cheap.

• We rate Bank Mandiri as our top pick with its attractive valuations including PEG ratio relative to solid returns and strong balance sheet – including liquidity –  metrics
• We also continue to favour Bank Negara, but it is our secondary value pick to Mandiri; Bank Central Asia, albeit fully valued, has impressive liquidity and return metrics
• Bank Rakyat had mixed returns in 4Q22, with pre-provision returns declining sharply QoQ although cost of risk continued to improve, due to better credit quality, thereby supporting post-provision profits

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Indika Energy
• Meituan

• Mitra Adiperkasa continus to execute on its unified retail model that utilises multiple channels to serve customers but offline activity has picked up most, driving a very strong 4Q2022. 
• The company continues to see improving margins across the board as sales growth has picked up across all segments. Online sales also remained relevant at 9% of sales in 2022.
• Mitra Adiperkasa continues to recover, utilising its MAPCLUB members to drive sales through more effective targeted promotions and efficiencies. Valuations are attractive versus historical levels.

• Indonesian insurtech startup Qoala announced that it has raised US$7.5 million in a series B extension round led by Europe’s responsAbility Investments.
• Existing investors Eurazeo and Indogen as well as new investor AppWorks also participated in the round.
• The startup declined to comment on its valuation, but VentureCap Insights currently pegs it at US$310 million following the fundraise.