Daily Brief India: Suzlon Energy, Life Insurance of India, HDFC Limited, Agilus Diagnostics Limited, NIFTY Index, Infosys Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd and more

• Polycab India, Macrotech Developers, Paytm, Tata Communications, Tata Motors DVR, Apl Apollo Tubes, Persistent Systems and Suzlon Energy have run up over the recent past and have heightened investor attention.
• The increase in market cap has put the stocks on active manager radars and could also result in the stocks being added to global indices in the near future.
• We take a look at the positioning on the stocks and recommend pair trades to reduce market risk while trying to capture alpha.

• LICI has significant 62% market share of new business premiums with 92% coverage of all districts in the country, compared with 72% for all of the private sector combined.
• Long track record of operations since 1956 and strong growth, with recent years seeing exceptional strength in net profit, and with ROE reaching 148%.
• Well maintained SG&A costs with revenue growth exceeding policy benefits growth, with strong investment returns, especially in FY23. 1Q24 also shows continued operational strength, in a hugely under-penetrated market.

• HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE IN) reported 2Q24/ 1H24 results last week which were decent given the context: moderating VNB Margins amid changing product-mix and growth outlook positive for remaining year.
• The strong growth at the HDFC Bank counter is the key positive, though expected, on back of the HDFC Bank-HDFC merger.
• We value HDFC Life (HDFCL) at ~2.4x FY25e P/EV, implying a ~5% upside to current price. HDFCL is fairly valued in our view.

• Agilus Diagnostics Limited (SRLL IN) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Citi, Axis Capital, and ICICI Securities.
• Agilus Diagnostics Limited (Agilus) is a diagnostic testing service provider.
• As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the largest diagnostics service provider in terms of number of laboratories and the second largest in terms of FY23 sales.

• The NIFTY 50 Index closed last week up at 19751.05, 2nd week up, in synch with the S&P 500 INDEX WEEKLY bounce.
• The index has not moved up much from a price perspective, weak bounce. Resistance levels must be monitored: if the index rallies this week it could pull back next week.
• The trade orientation is to go SHORT once the NIFTY reaches Q2/Q3 OVERBOUGHT resistance levels in the 20167-20230 price area, this week. SHORT Trade at Close is also valid.

• The trade remains Long Nifty with a watch on earnings. 
• Infosys Ltd (INFO IN) reported a beat on revenues and a miss on EPS, heading into seasonally weak quarters is the pain now consensus? 
• Other names discussed include Delta Corp Ltd (DELTA IN), HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd (HDFCAMC IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN). 

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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