Daily Brief India: HDFC Asset Management Co Ltd, Reliance Industries, NIFTY Index, Vedanta Resources and more

• Due to the ongoing earnings season, for the next two weeks, we will temporarily deviate from our regular format and instead focus on reported earnings.
• We focus on reported earnings, performance against expectations, and the top three highlights that we believe are important from earnings calls for each company that is usually under coverage.
• Besides the Bullish/Bearish names, we draw attention to the ones that are highlighted as interesting and would be pleased to engage in discussions about any of them.

We view Reliance Industries (RIL) as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This is driven by the company’s: [1] large scale, leading position and diversified business portfolio; [2] strong track record of execution; as well as [3] modest credit metrics (Net Debt/EBITDA of c. 1x) and sound liquidity. There is a strong diversification effect from RIL’s three key segments (Oil to Chemicals, Digital Services and Retail), each of which is a market leader. The company raised substantial capital in FY 2020-21, FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23 from partial stake sales of its key segments at very high valuations, resulting in a strong cash position.This will help RIL to grow and fund the persistent negative FCF. The key credit constraint is India’s rating, as the company is already rated one notch higher than the sovereign.

Our Credit Bias on RIL is “Stable”, as the company’s strong fundamentals and positive momentum in operations should partially offset the weaker outlook on India’s sovereign rating.

Controversies are “Immaterial”. While RIL is subject to controversies and lawsuits (given that it is one of the largest conglomerates in India), the disputes are mainly commercial in nature instead of ESG-related. A former director of Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital reported various instances of financial irregularities, mismanagement and corporate governance failures at the hospital. RIL and Chairman Ambani were fined in 2007 for alleged manipulative trading in shares of related companies. RIL operates in the oil & gas industry, which is subject to scrutiny from environmental agencies, given the effects of fossil-fuel drilling on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and biodiversity in particular (the company has not reported any such incidents). There is also global pressure to move towards greener energy and reduce GHG emissions. RIL is focused on building a gas-based portfolio, which is cleaner than oil. We deem the ESG Impact on Credit as “Neutral”.

• The NIFTY Index last week closed down (CC=-1) and it’s moving towards the Q2/median support at 19154.
• The Index is not as oversold WEEKLY and MONTHLY as some of its other peers in the APAC group and is expected to rebound this week or the next.
• Suggested support prices to go LONG are found in the 19154 to 18682 price area, the rebound should unfold in November and could last the entire month.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources