Daily Brief India: Cigniti Technologies, UPL Ltd, Nexus Select Trust, Add-Shop E-Retail, HCL Technologies and more

• The Cigniti-Coforge acquisition presents a unique investment opportunity in the IT services sector, with potential for significant returns.
• Coforge plans to acquire a 54% stake in Cigniti Technologies, expanding its presence in digital assurance and AI services.
• The deal is expected to be completed by Q2 of FY25, with an open offer price potentially higher than the current market value of Cigniti shares.

• UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)‘s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
• Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
• Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.

• Nexus Select Trust (NST IN) raised around US$391m in its India IPO in May 2023.
• NST is a REIT with a portfolio of 17 Grade A urban consumption centers. Its portfolio covers retail malls, office assets, hospitality assets and a renewable power plant. 
• In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

• SEBI observed White Organics and Add Shop Retail used circular transaction method to inflate financial performance of respective companies
• Promoter sell their holdings on the back of this inflated financial performance
• The forensic analysis delves into the modus operandi of these frauds

UPL Limited’s Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly.

• Following HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)‘s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.
• Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.
• HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.