Daily Brief Health Care: Supermax Corp, Shanghai Duoning Biotechnology, Actinogen Medical and more

• Supermax Corp (SUCB MK) reported first-ever quarterly loss in Q2FY23 due to continued fall in rubber gloves ASP, rising input cost, and weakening of the USD against the local currency.
• The challenging operating environment for glove will persist into 2023. Amid continued weak global demand for gloves, declining ASP, and rising input cost, Supermax will take time to regain profitability.   
• Global demand for rubber gloves is not expected to recover soon. In the foreseeable future, the market will remain weak, competition continue to be intense, and profitability adversely impacted.

• The logic of Duoning’s business layout is that self-produced upstream products reduce the cost and increase customer stickiness, then lock in the purchase of future customers from the source.
• Although lagging behind imported enterprises in product performance, the upstream production cost control is one of the driving forces for the localization of pharmaceutical supply chain. Duoning has growth potential.
• A slow-down or reversal of trend related to life sciences industry growth could have an adverse effect on Duoning’s business. Overseas sanctions and policy risks are also the concerns. 

Actinogen is on track to start US recruitment in Q2 CY23 for the six-month, placebo-controlled Phase IIb portion of the XanaMIA study. The study portion is designed to assess Xanamem in a population of patients with mild cognitive impairment (CI) and/or mild Alzheimer’s disease (AD), who at baseline will have been confirmed as biomarker-positive for progressive AD. We believe market participants will be keen to observe whether this study portion will confirm the positive efficacy findings shown in a subset biomarker analysis from the earlier XanADu study. We expect the next material clinical data milestone for the company over the next 12 months will be the XanaCIDD study results, due in late CY23 or early CY24. This study aims to demonstrate whether Xanamem can show efficacy signals in patients with CI associated with major depressive disorder (MDD). After rolling our model forward and adjusting for forex, we now obtain an rNPV valuation of A$702m (vs A$651m previously).