In today’s briefing:
- Start of Tender Offer
- Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Global Products Continue to Shine; Second Consequent 2023 Guidance Raise
- ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4
Start of Tender Offer
- The $26.00/share cash offer of Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO UN) for Swedish Olink Holding (OLK US) started on 31 October. The 74% premium reflects that high-growth, positive adjusted EBITDA targets are rare.
- The offer values Olink at ~12.2x EV/NTM Fwd revenue vs. 6.4x median of peers. Irrevocables total 66%, but the minimum acceptance condition requires acceptances from a high 70.6% of float.
- Barring any unforeseen circumstances, such as regulatory action, I anticipate the deal closing and set my TP at $26/share. Gross spread is 4.81%.
Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Global Products Continue to Shine; Second Consequent 2023 Guidance Raise
- During 9M2023, Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) reported revenue growth of 17% YoY to ¥1,479B, driven by 21% YoY revenue growth in pharmaceutical segment due to 16% growth in global products.
- Despite the recording of impairment losses, operating profit increased 77% YoY to ¥203B, leading to a 460 bps expansion of margin to 13.7%. Net profit zoomed 46% YoY to ¥162B.
- The company has raised 2023 revenue guidance, second time this year. Otsuka now expects 2023 revenue to grow 14% YoY to ¥1,985B, 4% ahead of prior guidance of ¥1,905B.
ASRT: Minimizing Indocin, PT $4
- ASRT has not had any news to rekindle investor interest since reporting second quarter results. ASRT is scheduled to report third quarter results on November 8, 2023
- Ahead of the news, we are readjusting our expectations for Indocin. We are minimizing the revenue potential from Indocin in our earnings model.
- Going forward, Rolvedon becomes the primary revenue generator. ASRT should generate positive net income with Rolvedon sales ramping
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