In today’s briefing:
- Weekly Deals Digest (07 May) – Mankind, Nexus, Tata Tech, AAG, Golden Energy, Lian Beng, Penguin
- BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 – Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place
- Shanghai Tofflon Science (300171.CH) 2022/23Q1 – It’s Better Not to Go Against the Trend
Weekly Deals Digest (07 May) – Mankind, Nexus, Tata Tech, AAG, Golden Energy, Lian Beng, Penguin
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments – Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN), Nexus Select Trust (NST IN), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), ADICON Holdings Limited (ADI HK), Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments – Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Penguin International (PBS SP), Estia Health (EHE AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU).
BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 23Q1 – Qualitative Changes Are Taking Place
- A significant change in 23Q1 was not just a narrowing of net loss, but a sudden turnaround in sales profit under the rapid revenue growth, which was an important leap.
- BeiGene’s commercialization capabilities largely rely on high expense level that significantly deviating from the industry average, making eventual commercialization success more difficult. BeiGene is an “outlier” even among global peers.
- How to control expenses while ensuring sustained sales growth and long-term competitiveness is an important issue for BeiGene. If no new blockbuster product emerges ultimately, high valuation would not last.
Shanghai Tofflon Science (300171.CH) 2022/23Q1 – It’s Better Not to Go Against the Trend
- Tofflon needs to go through a considerable period of adjustment after experiencing the high point of performance. Its “periodicity” is obvious, which means the performance high growth is not sustainable.
- The decline in growth rate of contract liabilities suggests that the future prospects is highly uncertain. Overall margins could continue to drop due to reduction in high margin overseas orders.
- Unless there’s a major catalyst, it’s difficult to see significant valuation boost in short term. Given the current downward trend in performance, valuation may continue to decline in the future.
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