Daily Brief Health Care: JMDC , Eoflow , Estia Health, Automera Pte Ltd, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Universal Vision Biotechnology, Oryzon Genomics, Newron Pharmaceuticals and more

• Results for the Omron Corp (6645 JP) Partial Tender Offer for JMDC (4483 JP) are out. 
• The Pro-Ration was 51.63%, at the lower end of my initial estimate of 50-58% range, and at the higher end of my revised range (42-56%).
• The pro-ration, the nature of the shapes (technical term) tendered, and what that suggests for Noritsu Koki’s position suggests the back end could be more squeezy than not.

• On the 6th of October, a US district court judge entered a preliminary injunction (PI) against EOFlow (294090 KS), pending a trial. This development should have been expected.
• Less expected was the suspension of EOFlow shares today, and the cessation of sales globally. 
• The latter measure appears extreme, noting the PI addresses only sales in the US, which EOFlow is not permitted anyway, without FDA approval. There’s clearly more than meets the eye.

• In reaction to the preliminary injunction, Eoflow (294090 KS) shares were suspended as it is reviewing whether it is subject to a substantive review for KOSDAQ listing eligibility.  
• Medtronic Plc (MDT US) is in an unprecedented situation of potentially acquiring a company whose shares are suspended, has a preliminary injunction against it and exposure to possible liabilities. 
• Medtronic could have prevented this development by reaffirming its commitment to the deal. The transaction is on increasingly shaky grounds, which is reflected in the 38.2% gross spread. 

• On 10 October, the Korea Exchange announced a temporary suspension of trading of Eoflow (294090 KS) shares starting 11 October.
• Eoflow decided at its board of directors meeting the previous day (10th) to suspend production and sales of Eoflow patches until the outcome of the lawsuit is resolved. 
• In this insight, we provide various scenario analysis including the worst case, best case, and in-between cases of the Eoflow M&A tender offer process.

• The Estia Health (EHE AU) IE considers Bain’s A$3.20 (A$3.08 excluding paid dividends) offer fair and reasonable as it is above its valuation range of $2.83 to A$3.21 per share. 
• The offer is subject to FIRB and possibly aged care industry approvals. The MAC clause risk, particularly around material regulatory events, is diminishing.
• This is a done deal. At the last close price and for the 30 November payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.3% and 9.7%, respectively.

• Singapore-based biotechnology startup Automera has secured US$16 million in a Series A round of investment co-led by early-stage life science accelerator and investment firm Accelerator Life Science Partners (ALSP) and Temasek-backed venture builder ClavystBio.
• EDBI, Xora Innovation, and other undisclosed investors also participated.
• Automera was established by Associate Professor Michael Lazarou, Loong Wang, and Taiyang Zhang at Talo Labs in collaboration with ALSP.

• With few women in managerial positions, the reality is that for the time being female directors are forced to appoint candidates from outside the company.
• Two companies is the limit for a monthly board meeting with agenda preliminarily reviewed; investors should oppose proposals to elect candidates who hold board positions at three or more companies.
• The main idea is to promote board diversity for making strategic decisions based on diverse values, but it has become a numbers matching exercise to achieve % of female board members.

• Universal Vision Biotechnology (3218 TT) reported continued growth in 1H23, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit increasing 25%, 31%, and 31%, YoY, respectively. 
• Revenue from high-margin technical service grew 23% YoY, driven by increasing number of refractive and cataract surgeries performed in Taiwan. UVB dominates refractive market in Taiwan, with 50% market share.
• With dominant market positioning in Taiwan, re-opening in China, secular market tailwinds, and widening geographic presence, UVB is expected to report double-digit top and bottom-line growth through 2025.

Oryzon presented a positive update on vafidemstat’s ongoing Phase IIb PORTICO trial in borderline personality disorder (BPD) at the ECNP Congress. The aggregated blinded safety data, as of 23 August, demonstrated a well-tolerated safety profile for a cohort with baseline characteristics reflecting real-world demographics of a typical BPD population. This is a critical consideration for therapies to progress and be successful once commercialised. We also note a low rate of discontinuations (2%) due to treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) and zero discontinuations attributed to serious TEAEs. Screen failure and dropout rates, at 37% and 21%, respectively, were also favourable compared to other agents in development for BPD, such as brexpiprazole, which had higher rates (62% and 27%). As a reminder, the primary objective of the PORTICO trial is efficacy of vafidemstat, and we anticipate top-line data in Q124. Although the shared data was blinded, the overall results suggest a favourable safety profile for vafidemstat and we await next year’s efficacy readout as (if positive) it will be a key catalyst and potentially increase the probability of success for vafidemstat in BPD.

Newron has announced encouraging interim six-month data from its Phase II trial (study 014/015) of evenamide in 161 patients with treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). The six-month interval data for treatment at all dose levels showed evenamide was well-tolerated and efficacious, with statistically significant responses (p-value <0.001) across the key efficacy measures (PANSS, CGI-S and LOF). The interim data also provide inputs for the potentially pivotal Phase III trial (study 003), which we expect to start in Q124. We note that one-year data was reported on the first 100 participants of study 014/015 in May 2023, and we now await the complete one-year data from the full 161-patient cohort, expected in Q124. If favourable, this could be a significant inflection point for the company.