In today’s briefing:
- Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval
- Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health
- Criteria for TOPIX Components and Prime Market Listing Criteria Should Be Discussed Separately
- Continuing Deflationary Cycle Will Not Raise Younger Generation’s Desire to Marry and Have Children
- Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears
- Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside
Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval
- Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has announced positive clinical trial results for its Alzheimer’s disease (AD) drug candidate, lecanemab. Lecanemab succeeded in slowing cognitive decline by 27%.
- Importantly, the study shows that removal of aggregated amyloid beta in the brain is associated with a slowing of disease in patients, thereby opening innovation pathway for new treatment options.
- Eisai aims to file for traditional approval in the U.S. and to submit marketing authorization applications in Japan and Europe by the end of FY23.
Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health
- Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains the leading diagnostics company in Indonesia and was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic and hence has seen a recent slowdown.
- The number of tests per visit increased in 1H2022, as customers returned to more routine testing post COVID plus the company is increasingly employing a digital approach to its business.
- Prodia is forecast to return to growth over the next two years, with +11% EPS growth forecast for FY2023E and FY2024E, implying a forward PER of 8.6x.
Criteria for TOPIX Components and Prime Market Listing Criteria Should Be Discussed Separately
- The ongoing panel discussions also call for increasing TOPIX liquidity as a market need. However, TSE seems to think that it has completed the TOPIX reform for the time being.
- TSE appears to be insisting that the criteria for TOPIX stock selection be consistent with the prime market listing criteria of 10 billion Yen in tradable market capitalization.
- On the periodic replacement of TOPIX components, TSE isn’t looking at the urgent need of improving liquidity as issue to be addressed after the completion of the staged-weighting-reduction (February 2025).
Continuing Deflationary Cycle Will Not Raise Younger Generation’s Desire to Marry and Have Children
- Even couples who have decided to get married are squeezing wedding expenses, indicating that financial reasons are overshadowing the factors that keep young people from getting married.
- Real wages have continued to decline over the past 25 years, and real income per household is known to be lower in 2018 than it was in 1980.
- The deflationary cycle that has carried out by procuring cheap labor from overseas under the guise of technical intern trainees and women as non-regular workers doesn’t seem to be sustainable.
Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears
- The monkeys have become Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)’s important profit growth point based on the logic chain of “monkey supply shortage – monkey price rise – Joinn’s performance increase”.
- Faced with doubts about the future prosperity of CXO, we don’t think Joinn is immune as a part of this industrial chain. Joinn is hard to achieve the V-shaped rebound.
- Valuations are hard to increase by when the industry is very mature.For investment logic, my favorite is the industry beta, followed by industry beta+alpha. The last is low P/E ratio.
Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ): Strong Underlying Growth Story; Current Macro Scenario Limits Upside
- Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) has a secular growth story underpinned by ageing population. Australia and New Zealand are projected to have 5.3 million people aged 75 and above by 2062.
- Rising interest rate and falling property prices should limit the upside potential of property management companies, like Ryman. New Zealand’s house prices are forecast to sink 9% this year.
- Ryman’s site of the Moondah mansion in Mt Eliza, near Melbourne central business district is still under litigation.
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