In today’s briefing:
- China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls
- Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus
- TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …
- 2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook
- IMNN: Positive Results for OVATION 2 Trial Supports Advancing IMNN-001 Into Phase 3 Study
- LGVN: Financial Update Highlights Successes
- Medpeer Inc (6095 JP): Q3 FY09/24 Flash Update, Revision of Full-Year FY09/24 Earnings Forecast
- Mrt Inc/Jp (6034 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
- Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India
- Raqualia Pharma (4579 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
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China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Relief as Update Favours the Bulls
- China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update reinforces the bull case. The gross spread has remained uncomfortably high since falling on no news on 26 June.
- The monthly update will relieve the bulls, as the consortium has finally made the regulatory submissions. The update stresses that the filing delay is due to an unwieldy consortium.
- Potential stumbling blocks remain, which should not be an issue. Nevertheless, the risk (17.7% downside to the undisturbed price)/reward (21.4% gross spread) remains attractive.
Long 7747 Asahi Intec | Short 7733 Olympus
- 7747 Asahi Intec announced FY06/25 OP guidance of Y25.2bn, close to street expectations, pointing to substantial upside. GPM guidance has increased and continuation of strong 4Q YoY sales is expected.
- Seven days of short interest outstanding could lead to a short squeeze; Earnings briefing tomorrow reinforcing these trends should be a further catalyst for upside.
- With short interest now low and limited potential for further gains after the recent rebound, 7733 Olympus appears to be losing momentum, especially with China sales continuing to flag.
TCM (570 HK): A Spoonful Of Sugar …
- A 14.8% gain month-to-date, including this past Monday’s 6.5% pop – you just knew something positive was taking place behind closed doors. And leaking its way into the public.
- So it was no real surprise to read in the latest monthly update announcement on the HKEx that various regulatory approvals are almost, but not quite, satisfied.
- The wording in the announcement strikes a positive tone. Even remaining conservative on the timeline, this could be wrapped up before year-end.
2024 High Conviction Update: Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)- FY24 Result Tops Guidance; Positive Outlook
- Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) reported strong FY24 result, with all key parameters beating estimates. FY24 revenue exceeds ¥100B, a significant milestone of the mid-term management plan.
- For FY25, Asahi Intecc has guided for revenue of ¥117B (up 9% YoY), operating profit of ¥25B (up 14% YoY), and net profit of ¥19B (up 19% YoY).
- Growth will be driven by increase in overseas revenue in medical division despite the impact of stronger yen. Positive environment and strong demand enhance conviction on the long-term growth prospect.
IMNN: Positive Results for OVATION 2 Trial Supports Advancing IMNN-001 Into Phase 3 Study
- On July 30, 2024, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) announced positive topline results for the Phase 2 OVATION 2 Trial of IMNN-001 in patients with advanced ovarian cancer.
- The company reported an 11.1 month increase in median overall survival (OS) compared with standard-of-care alone in the intent-to-treat (ITT) population with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.74, which indicates a 35% improvement in survival.
- For the 40% of trial participants treated with a PARP inhibitor, the HR dropped to 0.41, with a median OS in the IMNN-001 treatment arm that had not yet been reached at the time of database lock, compared with a median OS of 37.1 months in the standard-of-care arm.
LGVN: Financial Update Highlights Successes
- Longeveron is focusing on using its primary treatment, Lomecel-B, to fight a rare pediatric heart birth defect that devastates families but continues to receive good FDA news regarding its treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease.
- The company released its 2Q2024 earnings and highlighted advances made with its signature treatment-Lomecel-B.
- The treatment has made significant progress and received multiple FDA designation for both Alzheimer’s Disease and the devastating HLHS.
Medpeer Inc (6095 JP): Q3 FY09/24 Flash Update, Revision of Full-Year FY09/24 Earnings Forecast
- Sales were JPY11.4bn (+7.1% YoY), EBITDA JPY1.5bn (+10.3% YoY), operating profit JPY1.0bn (+24.7% YoY), net income JPY429mn (+5.0% YoY).
- Revised FY09/24 forecast: Sales JPY14.6bn, EBITDA JPY1.8bn, operating profit JPY1.2bn, recurring profit JPY1.1bn, net income JPY1.4bn.
- Segment performance: Collective Intelligence Platform sales JPY9.3bn (+8.5% YoY), Medical Institution Support sales JPY377mn (+2.6% YoY), Preventative Healthcare sales JPY1.7bn (+1.4% YoY).
Mrt Inc/Jp (6034 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
- 1H FY12/24 revenue was JPY2.2bn (-31.4% YoY), operating profit JPY97mn (-87.9% YoY), net income JPY32mn (-93.8% YoY).
- Q1 FY12/24 revenue was JPY937mn (-46.9% YoY) with an operating loss of JPY103mn; Q2 revenue increased to JPY1.3bn (-12.9% YoY).
- Medical Personnel Services revenue was JPY1.7bn (-4.8% YoY), Other Services revenue was JPY575mn (-61.9% YoY).
Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India
- Upcoming potential milestones include the submission to the Ethics Committees at a third site in Australia and one in India, possible approval from one or both as early as FY25 2Q or 3Q and the launch of the patient enrollment process at those venues following Aethlon’s site visits.
- The company expects to begin the patient enrollment process in October 2024.
- We would expect AEMD to announce that the first patient has been treated possibly by year-end 2024 or early 2025.
Raqualia Pharma (4579 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
- Operating revenue increased to JPY1.4bn (+39.1% YoY), with an operating loss of JPY154mn and a recurring loss of JPY278mn.
- Royalty income from four launched products and global expansion of tegoprazan generated JPY998mn (+36.3% YoY) in 1H FY12/24.
- Total operating expenses rose to JPY1.6bn (+50.9% YoY), including R&D expenses of JPY833mn (+38.0% YoY) and SG&A expenses of JPY506mn (+62.1% YoY).