In today’s briefing:
- WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
- Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank
- Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 2Q24 Review: Poor Performance; No Signs of Turnaround. Sell.
- BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust – Last man standing – committed to the region
- Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings
- Molten Ventures – NAV down c 6% in the first half of FY24
WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
- WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).
- WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.
- Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.
Indian Banks Screener: Stick with Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank
- We retain Bank of Baroda as the deep value Indian bank from our peer group, for its modest valuations, healthy ROE and further improvements in pre- and post-provision returns
- The market seems unconvinced by HDFC Bank but we retain it as our quality bank pick, with its potential for savings from the HDFC merger and its strong balance sheet
- Axis bank stays on our watchlist, but its premium valuations are the challenge; we remain negative on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks and limited progress on returns
Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) 2Q24 Review: Poor Performance; No Signs of Turnaround. Sell.
- Life Insurance of India (LICI IN) reported its 1H24 earnings which are a continuation of the poor performance of the largest life insurer in India.
- Total sales were down -10% (individual sales – flat y-o-y); VNB margins falling; outlook not positive. Not positive shifts in product mix or distribution trends.
- We value LIC at 0.5x FY25e P/EV, implying a -15% downside from the current price, reflecting poor sales growth, loss of market-share and its failure to turn-around the business model.
BlackRock Latin American Inv. Trust – Last man standing – committed to the region
BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust (BRLA) has two managers, Sam Vecht (lead) and Christoph Brinkmann (deputy). They highlight that Latin America has been overlooked by investors and the trust is now the only fund in the AIC Latin America sector. The managers are finding interesting opportunities in the region in their search for companies offering a niche product or service, which have long-term growth potential and are reasonably priced. BRLA offers a broad exposure to Latin America, with around 60% of the fund invested in Brazil, the largest country in the region. The Brazilian central bank was proactive in raising interest rates to combat higher inflation, real interest rates remain relatively high and the economy should benefit now that interest rates are coming down.
Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
Molten Ventures – NAV down c 6% in the first half of FY24
Molten Ventures released its H124 trading update (to end-September 2023), with management expecting its NAV per share at c 735p, a c 5.7% decline from the end-March 2023 level as a result of a 3.6% negative fair value movement (excluding fx) across its portfolio. That said, management highlighted that the valuation environment is stabilising and that Molten’s portfolio performance remains resilient, with a good balance between growth (even if at a slower pace) and capital efficiency (with very limited exceptions). Molten’s shares currently trade at a 66% discount to NAV.