In today’s briefing:
- MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes
- SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises
- Swire Back To Buying Back – One-Third To Go
- Ocular: 2023 Thematic Outlook
MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes
- Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN) will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
- One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.
- There have been big inflows to the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US) over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.
SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises
- Bearish from SPX 4,060-80. Near resistance at 4,020 was used to add to shorts. Downside surprise due this week on break of 3.900.
- Key support breaks amid systemic risk saw us raise our net short going into this more turbulent period that should wrap up near the 20th. Started shorting in Feb.
- Added Japan to our short list being a laggard. Once laggards buckle we will be closer to a short term low.
Swire Back To Buying Back – One-Third To Go
- After two months of zero buybacks under their HK$4bn buyback programme, on Friday Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) | Swire Pacific (B) (87 HK) again bought back shares.
- Ostensibly, it was as Swire A shares fell below HK$60/share. They were 65% of B volume and 51% of A volume on Friday – not shy about their return.
- Assuming participation patterns normalise and the shares don’t bounce back above the self-imposed limit, the buyback will probably last 6-7 weeks more. The div arb is real if you hold.
Ocular: 2023 Thematic Outlook
- 2022 was a challenging year for web3. We witnessed the collapse of TerraLUNA, the fall of FTX, and several notable insolvencies including Three Arrows Capital, Voyager, Celsius and BlockFi.
- These events deeply impacted the sector, with the crypto market losing over $2 trillion in market cap in 2022 and public perception of web3 turning sour.
- Many suspect we have yet to feel the full magnitude of the contagion effect of these events, as they are still ongoing (e.g. the FTX trial), and we could reach new lows.
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