Daily Brief Financials: VCredit Holdings Ltd, Insignia Financial, Lufax Holding , Hyundai Motor Securities, NIFTY Index, Ethereum, Lionheart III Corp, 1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin and more

• VCredit Holdings Ltd (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, was listed on the 21st June 2018 at HK$20/share. Shares are currently down 90%.
• Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman, held 35.6% at the time of listing, and currently holds 39.85%.  
• VCredit was suspended this morning pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Now might be the time for Ma to take VCredit back into the fold. 

• IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) shares rose 11% in the final minutes of trade, fueled by media reports suggesting that Bain was in the advanced stages of making a buyout offer.
• The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive takeover premium. Takeover interest is unsurprising as Insignia trades at a material discount to peers.
• We use several methods to triangulate the likely offer, which suggests a price range of A$3.44-5.50 per share, with an average of A$4.67, a 37.4% premium to the last close.

• As discussed in PA Gooddoctor (1833 HK) – The Arb Is To Take The Stock, Ping An increased its stake in Lufax (6623 HK) to 56.82% via a scrip dividend.
• This triggered a zero-premium MGO, which closed on the 28 October 2024 with negligible tendering.
• Via an amendment to a tri-party agreement, Ping An subsequently lifted its stake to 66.85%. It’s worth understanding how Ping An has taken its stake >50% and beyond. 

• After the market close on 12 December, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) put a break on Hyundai Motor Securities’ rights offering worth 200 billion won.
• The proposed rights offering included issuing 30.1 million new shares, representing 95% of its current outstanding shares (31.7 million).
• We would try to capitalize on the short term bullish upside on its shares of Hyundai Motor Securities and sell into strength.  

• IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) has received an indicative proposal from Bain Capital to acquire all of its shares at A$4/share in cash.
• The offer takes advantage of IOOF Holdings (IFL AU)‘s underperformance over the last couple of years and there could be competing offers from other investment managers. 
• Short interest in IOOF Holdings (IFL AU) is around 2% of shares out and 2.5% of float. There could be short covering in the next few days.

• Cross-Market volatility snapshot highlighting option opportunities. Today’s opportunities are in the Nifty 50 and in Bitcoin
• Nifty 50: The index crossed the 50-day moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Hedging gains is recommended due to expected macroeconomic uncertainty in Q1 2025.
• Bitcoin: Surpassed $100,000, driven by positive sentiment towards the incoming US President’s crypto-friendly stance. Options strategies are suggested, plus how a synthetic Bitcoin bond compares to a corporate bond.

• Insignia Financial (IFL AU), a wealth manager and previously known as IOOF, has announced a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.
• The Offer, should it proceed, will be by way of a Scheme.  Apart from IFL’s shareholder approval, a firm bid requires FIRB signing off. 
• IFL’s board is weighing up the Offer’s pros and cons. This probably requires a small bump.

• Discussion on the performance and outlook of various assets, including Solana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin
• Analysis of market trends and potential factors that could drive asset valuations in the future
• Debate on the future dominance and valuation of different L1 networks such as Solana and Ethereum
• Speculation on the potential for an L1 network to surpass the market cap of Bitcoin and gold
• Mention of upcoming report release and the importance of becoming a subscriber for detailed insights

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• Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation reported its fiscal second-quarter results, which were influenced by ongoing industry disruption, the lingering effects of the previous year’s strikes, and a disappointing performance at the theatrical box office.
• The company’s Television Group, particularly its unscripted segment, faced challenges due to a continuing market correction.
• In the Motion Picture Group, the poor box office performance of “Borderlands,” along with softer-than-anticipated results from other releases, impacted financial outcomes.

• In this edition: • ABN Amro / ING | both confirm CET1 ratios to be ahead of regulatory requirements • Ahold Delhaize | Albertsons files claim against Kroger after merger attempt was blocked • Shell / SBM Offshore | ExxonMobil plans to further increase oil production • TKH Group | awarded inter-array cable contract for Inch Cape offshore wind farm