Daily Brief Financials: S&P 500 INDEX, HDFC Bank, Bank of Chongqing Co Ltd H, Sino-Ocean Group and more

• A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in “buckets”, to generate a “matrix” showing the market’s average trend reversal “behavior” at the end of each trend “type”. 
• A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.
• The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.

• News out this morning that HDFC Bank and HDFC merger became effective 1 July 
• This occurred after the Boards approved the merger scheme on 30 June
• Funding cost benefits, operating cost synergies, product cross-sale: major benefits

• Combination of high NIM contraction with high loan growth is not a good combination
• BOC has seen its NIM down 14% in the past year but against 12% loan growth
• PBOC pressure to cut rates and for banks to support ailing debtors, is a risk

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• MGM China Holdings
• Sino-Ocean Service
• Vedanta Resources