Daily Brief Financials: Seoul Guarantee Insurance, KakaoBank , Nikkei 225, Bandhan Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd, Goodman Group, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust and more

• Seoul Guarantee Insurance (031210 KS) stated today that it will cancel its IPO mainly due to low demand.
• Despite the company’s emphasis on high dividends and high ROA of 5.8% in 2022 (5x average ROA of the domestic non-life insurance companies), many institutional investors emphasized on the negatives.
• The major negatives include high interest rates, lack of growth potential, concerns about additional shares sale overhang, and unattractive valuations. 

• Financial regulators will likely mandate Kakao Corp to divest all but 10% of its stake in Kakao Bank. The deadline is six months from the date of the order.
• If this issue is resolved through the forced sale of the stake, it is anticipated that this stake volume will eventually be released into the market through block deals.
• Kakao may proactively divest its Kakao Bank stake to transfer the majority shareholder position to KIS, regardless of the judicial outcome.

• The Nikkei 225 (NKY) INDEX closed last week down at 31259.36. It’s currently trading between the Q2 and Q3 WEEKLY support levels and down for 4 months, so it’s OVERSOLD.
• The index could reverse this week, or fall more into the end of October, but if this week closes down, the odds are very good for a rally in November.
• Consider going LONG between here and supports in the 30600-30400 price area, a MONTHLY reversal could last at least 2-4 weeks (a month).

• In its recent result, Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) did not report the kind of improvement in asset quality in its core Microfinance segment that we were hoping to see.
• Fresh slippages into overdue accounts did not slow down as anticipated; NPA levels remained elevated; Loan growth is below the target run-rate.
• We anticipate the recovery to be drawn out, and hence suggest keeping patience. But  we maintain our long-term valuation of Bandhan Bank unchanged at 2.1x FY25e P/BV, implying +56% upside.

• Loan mix is improving, away from non-INR loans, asset mix is improving with less RIDF bonds, and bank is seeing an expanding LDR. 
• Loss loans and doubtful loans are in major decline, they are less important to total NPLs, and still credit costs were high in 1Q24, likely overly conservative.
• Credit growth is now at 22.6% YoY from 14.9% YoY one year ago, with consistent acceleration. With just 6% loan share, growth can remain high.

• In this insight, we explore the potential trade idea to Long GMG and Short DXS, among Australia REITs
• We propose this trade on the back of long-term attractive thematic and strong fundamentals of logistics sector and continued weakness of office sector, as well as company specific drivers
• GMG focuses on logistics and is a fund manager, and will continue to be strong. DXS is primarily driven by Sydney office market, which is facing multiple headwinds

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
• Vedanta Resources