Daily Brief Financials: Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance, Swire Pacific (A), NIFTY Index, IP Group PLC and more

• With the 15% ownership cap complicating buybacks, Samsung Fire’s more likely to roll out a dividend-focused value-up play instead.
• They’ve flagged a mix of shareholder returns and investments, but the big question is how much will be funneled into returns this year.
• If Samsung Fire hits a 50% shareholder return this year, DPS could jump to ₩23,000–₩25,000 with a 6.5% yield, potentially boosting the stock price by 20–30%.

• Swire Pacific (19 HK) is coming up “cheap” on my monitor vs. Swire Properties (1972 HK) and Cathay Pacific (293 HK), after Cathay settles its Hong Kong government tab.
• Preceding my comments on Swire and Cathay are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• IVs traded lower as risk sentiment received a boost. Markdown in risk-premia confirms earlier premise that the early-September Vol-spike was a seasonality driven event
• Vol-Curve Term-structure going into the Fed meeting – Slightly inverted for Nifty50 options & exhibiting V-shape kinked curve for BankNifty options
• Volatility Regime Model for BankNifty has switched to “Low & Down”, while Nifty50 options retain their “High & Down” vol-state. 

IP Group reported broadly stable private portfolio values in H124, assisted by the positive revaluation of Featurespace, an AI-powered fraud and financial crime detection business, which delivered strong top-line growth of 46.5% in 2023 to £50.4m. This helped offset a further carrying value reduction of First Light Fusion and a partial write-down of Ultraleap Holdings, a human-machine interface business. The de-rating of listed Oxford Nanopore (ONT) was therefore the major driver behind IP Group’s 9% NAV fall in total return (TR) terms in H124. Roughly half of ONT’s share price decline has reversed post reporting date, supported by its half-year trading update and the Novo Holdings investment. Across other life sciences holdings, there were four positive clinical trial results and only one failure. Importantly, IP Group has seen an uptick in exits in the year to date, with cash proceeds of £44.6m (c 4% of opening portfolio value, with £30m from the sale of Garrison Technology). This encouraged the company to increase the current buyback programme by £10m to £30m.