Daily Brief Financials: Public Storage, Bitcoin, CIMB Group Holdings and more

In today’s briefing:

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow
Crypto Crisp: September, Please Go Away
Malaysian Banks Screener; CIMB Improves Credit Quality Driving Post Provision Returns

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it’s likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.

Since the release of our Crypto Moves #42 on Friday, the market experienced further declines but has since regained some of its lost ground.
Our outlook remains unchanged: at best, the market will move sideways throughout September, and at worst, we may see further declines.
However, starting in October, the market will most likely show signs of life similar to those we saw in the early months of this year.

We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations
We downgrade Maybank to a neutral from buy, largely on the back of valuations and its middle-of-the-peer-group pre- and post-provision return trends, with its efficiency ratio requiring attention
We believe that AM Bank is a name to watch for its low valuations as well as its improving cost of risk trends and profitability returns

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