In today’s briefing:
- PNB Housing: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy
- QV Equities (QVE AU): 28th June Shareholder Vote
- BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities
- Morning Views Asia: China Vanke
- Deutsche Beteiligungs – Successful exits assist H124 performance
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PNB Housing: Block Deal Trade Special Situations and Tactical Trade Strategy
- Impending block deals which generally create supply over-hang on the stock leads to a negative impact on the stock.
- These block deals generally include selling promoters and big funds at a price discount to its current market price.
- Historically, such events suggest once the block deal is done; stock reacts positively creating a Special Situation Opportunity
QV Equities (QVE AU): 28th June Shareholder Vote
- On the 12th March, Aussie-based investment plays QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU) and WAM Leaders Ltd (WLE AU) entered into a Scheme.
- The current scrip terms are 0.739 new WAM shares per QVE share; OR A$0.989/share cash. Terms will be adjusted for updated pre-tax NTA/shares of both companies after the Scheme Meeting.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 28th June. Expected implementation on the 15 July. The IE says fair & reasonable.
BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities
- On 24 May, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM). Closing expected to take 6-8 months.
- Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.
- Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell’s shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.
Morning Views Asia: China Vanke
Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.
Deutsche Beteiligungs – Successful exits assist H124 performance
Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) reported an NAV total return of 3% in H124 (to March 2024) following the first-time recognition of 2024 portfolio company budgets and 2024 consensus forecasts for peers in Q124. Its H124 return includes a net €19m negative effect from the incorporation of additional portfolio valuation factors. DBAG’s H124 performance was supported by the successful sale of in-tech at a healthy 3.2x multiple on invested capital (MOIC). DBAG also closed the initial investment in a 51% stake in ELF Capital. Its shares now trade at a c 22% discount to NAV.