Daily Brief Financials: Noah Holdings, Nesco Ltd, USD, Yuexiu Property and more

• I mentioned Noah holdings as a trade to buy before earnings since I anticipated an announcement of significant capital returns.
• This has worked out well with over $2 in dividends announced. Half of that dividend will be recurring.
• So I sold out all of my shares at just under $12. This was never a high conviction investment, but merely a trade. Marking it as a 18% return.

• Nesco reported a strong Q3FY24 led by significant growth in the exhibition business. It grew by 55%+ YoY and grew 3%+ QoQ despite Q2 being a seasonally strong quarter.
• The IT business performed steady with revenues at around INR 80cr and EBIT at around 65cr. Revenue declined by -4% QoQ, led by slight decline in occupancy.
• Nesco is now on track to beat our prior FY24 upgraded PAT estimate of INR 330cr+. It may now end FY24 with a PAT of INR 350cr+.

• Powell’s dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release
• Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed
• Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets

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Yuexiu Property’s (YXP) FY 2023 results were largely stable and in line with our expectations. The company reported strong contracted sales and top-line growth, albeit the margins weakened in tandem with industry trends. Leverage was mixed, as net debt crept up slightly. Importantly, liquidity appears sound, supported by YXP’s healthy access to financing. The company remains active in land acquisitions and has a good quality land bank, with 95% of its projects in Tier 1 and 2 cities.