Daily Brief Financials: MS&AD Insurance, Psc Insurance, Hang Seng Index, Bitcoin, Ares Commercial Real Estate, H&T Group Plc, Rithm Capital and more

• With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
• Like Honda (who hadn’t bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn’t bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
• Today, Toyota announced an “organised” 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
• We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
• For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.

• The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
• The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. <17718.61.
• The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).

• First, the crypto market has seen substantial gains in the past week, particularly Bitcoin, which is now trading at $67,000 for the first time since mid-June, having previously traded as low as $53,500.
• Please do not make the mistake of thinking that we cannot go higher in the near future.
• Let us reiterate the bullish outlook we have put forward in what feels like forever.

• ACRE is a commercial real estate REIT sponsored by Ares Management Corp, a major investment manager with over $400 billion in assets.
• ACRE has a $2.2 billion portfolio of 47 loans in various sectors, but has been underperforming compared to competitors in the commercial mortgage REIT space.
• Despite underperformance, ACRE and Ares Management are actively working to improve the situation and potentially increase returns for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In this note, we put pawnbroking into a global and historical context: i) the global market is large, ca.$40bn, UK just ca.5%; ii) pawnbroking is widely adopted across a range of cultures/geographies from China, India, Islamic countries to US, Europe and UK; iii) many UK immigrants are comfortable with pawnbroking from experiences in their country of origin; iv) the largest listed pawnbrokers trade at over 2x the PER rating of H&T with similar forward earnings growth; iv) it is generally a regulated business with largely favourable regulators’ comments, as in the UK.
• Pawnbroking has been available globally for centuries, debunking the misconception some have of it as a UK Dickensian practice.

• Invest in Rithm Capital (RITM), a diverse REIT operating as a holding company
• Rithm expected to break up into separate public companies, becoming a pure-play asset manager
• Potential for stock price to reach $15-$20 per share with higher management fees and a 9.1% dividend yield, resulting in a total return of over 60% in the next few years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.